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Futures Now Futures Now: Blog


  Sunday, 27 Sep 2015 | 5:00 PM ET

The trouble with the Fed's inflation call

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

It is often said that hope is not an investment strategy. Yet that chestnut may not apply to central bankers, because hope appears to be the Federal Reserve's strategy of choice when it comes to inflation.

In a Thursday speech delivered at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, Fed chair Janet Yellen predicted that at long last, inflation is set to hit the Fed's long-run 2 percent inflation target in the years ahead.

Though inflation has been running at "essentially zero" over the past year, "the Committee expects that inflation will gradually return to 2 percent over the next two or three years," Yellen said.

Read MoreJohn Boehner just made Janet Yellen's life harder

Furnishing the below chart, she reasoned that much of the inflation "shortfall" is likely due to low energy and non-energy prices—both of which can be pinned on sliding oil and the surging U.S. dollar.

»Read more
  Thursday, 24 Sep 2015 | 3:04 PM ET

Something has changed in the gold trade: Gartman

Posted By: Amanda Diaz

Stocks' pain has turned into gold's gain.

Gold prices soared to a one-month high Thursday as fears of a global slowdown have investors seeking so-called safe haven assets like bonds and bullion. And according to Dennis Gartman, often referred to as the "commodities king," the rally in gold could just be starting.

"There's a real strength in the gold market when you look at it in non-U.S. dollar terms," the publisher of The Gartman Letter said Thursday in an interview with CNBC's "Futures Now." "The difference is enormous."

Read MoreHere's my Fed commodity trade: Jim Iuorio

While everyone focuses on gold's move relative to the dollar, Gartman says the real story is what's happening around the world. Pointing to gold priced in euros and yen specifically, the CNBC contributor said that bullion has actually been outperforming. As he noted, in euro terms, gold is up 4.6 percent in the past two years and 6.7 percent over the past five years. Whereas related to the yen, it's up 4.8 percent for two years and 26.4 percent in five years.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 23 Sep 2015 | 8:00 AM ET

Schiff: I'm right on Fed—I'll be right on stocks

Posted By: Amanda Diaz

Peter Schiff has a strong message for investors: It's time to wake up.

The longtime Fed foe took a victory lap on CNBC's "Futures Now" Tuesday, days after Fed chair Janet Yellen announced she would leave interest rates unchanged for the time being.

"The whole world has been fooled by this Fed con," said the Euro Pacific Capital CEO. "Most people believe the Fed. They believe the Fed is going to raise rates," he added.

Schiff has long posited that the Fed will never raise interest rates, contrary to general consensus. In fact, Schiff believes the likelihood of another round of easing is greater than a rate hike. "I don't think she ever intended to hike rates," he said. "They are in a monetary roach hotel, and they will never be able to raise rates back up."

Read MoreChina has a message markets don't understand

Recent turmoil in global equities is just the latest reason for the "data dependent" Fed to hold off on its first hike in nearly a decade. But for Schiff, this isn't anything new, as he has been calling the Fed's bluff long before the latest bout in volatility.

»Read more
  Sunday, 20 Sep 2015 | 5:02 PM ET

Less than zero: Are negative rates next for Fed?

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

Last week, the Federal Reserve spooked markets by preserving the monetary policy status quo. Yet a few central bank watchers were more surprised by a new idea the central bank seemingly suggested: a negative interest rate.

The Fed's closely watched "dot plot" revealed that at least one committee member floated the idea that a fed funds rate below zero might be an appropriate target for the remainder of this year and next.

The forecast is widely thought to be the work of Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, a non-voting member of the committee who is known for his dovish views. In her press conference last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen made clear that a negative federal funds rate "was not something that we considered very seriously at all today."

Read MoreThe Fed has to deal with its own zombie apocalypse

However, in an environment where prices are persistently low, negative rates mean that businesses and consumers are essentially paid to borrow money, which could serve as an important stimulative tool in times of crisis.

The idea has been floated in the U.K., and tried in the euro zone and Switzerland. Suffice to say, the fact that the concept is being floated in the U.S. is striking to some.

After all, the Fed has spent years noting that its benchmark rate is at the "zero lower bound," which forces it to take other actions in order to stimulate the economy, (i.e. purchase bonds) since rates can't be lowered any further.

Yet what if that bound is not a bound at all, but a Rubicon waiting to be crossed?

»Read more
  Wednesday, 16 Sep 2015 | 8:35 AM ET

Chase: Hike or not, this is most important for Fed

Posted By: Amanda Diaz

The big question on every investors mind this week is simple: Will she, or won't she?

Wall Street is ripe with anticipation as the countdown continues to what could be the most important Federal Reserve statement since the financial crisis. But while everyone seems to be weighing in on how the market will react if Fed Chair Janet Yellen decides to hike or not, one widely followed economist says it all comes down to her language.

"It really depends on what kind of guidance we get," Anthony Chan told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday. Chan, who is in the camp of a December rate hike, believes that if the Fed does indeed pass on September, it must make a "strong case" that the "fundamentals are improving and the only reason they decided to stop or pause is because of global volatility and some volatility here in the U.S.," in order for the market to react positively.

Read MoreThis might be the worst Fed option

»Read more
  Sunday, 13 Sep 2015 | 5:00 PM ET

The Fed may hike, but here's why it may not matter

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

The Federal Reserve may or may not elect to raise its target on the federal funds rate when it meets on Thursday. Yet either way, the much-anticipated decision is unlikely to have nearly as great an impact on the economy as it might have 30 years ago.

Such is the argument in a recently released paper from the Kansas City Fed, which posits that changes in financial markets and the American economy have reduced the import of changes to the interbank lending rate.

Before 1985, an unexpected 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate would have led to a 0.2 percent increase in employment over the next two years, the study noted. But in the post-1994 period, the effect on employment is statistically insignificant, find Jonathan Willis and Guangye Cao of the Kansas City Fed.

This is obviously problematic, given that the Fed describes its ultra-low interest rate target as intended to "support continued progress toward maximum employment." If the impact of a shifting fed funds rate target on employment is indeed nil, then this strategy makes little sense.

Read MoreWill it or won't it? Wall Street mulls Fed's next move

Perhaps even more troubling, it means that the Fed's primary tool for helping the economy has been, at best, severely blunted.

»Read more
  Friday, 11 Sep 2015 | 7:30 AM ET

Here's why the Fed won't hike next week: Deutsche Bank

Posted By: Amanda Diaz

While Wall Street frets about a potential Fed rate hike next week, one prominent economist has a simple message for investors: Relax. Nothing is going to happen.

"I would say in light of a variety of different events, most notably the fragility and volatility in the global equity markets, the Fed is most likely to pass on September," Joe LaVorgna said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." Wild price swings have plagued U.S. equities in the past several weeks, as the market has grappled with heightened volatility.

But rather than push the decision to raise rates for the first time in nearly a decade back to the end of the year, LaVorgna—who believes the Fed missed a prime opportunity to hike in the spring—said it could come sooner than most market watchers think.

Read MoreNo Fed interest rate hike until 2017: Sri-Kumar

"They are going to view [the next month] as a way to see what, if any, negative fallout that the recent market events have had on the broader economy," said Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist. "I think October is interesting as a possibility for a hike, as the Fed could very well raise rates next month if economic and financial conditions warrant action."

»Read more
  Tuesday, 8 Sep 2015 | 3:16 PM ET

Market looks a lot like 1998: Wells Fargo

Posted By: Amanda Diaz

The recent spurt in volatility has many market participants drawing comparisons to prior crashes. Now, one former bear claims the market is giving her déjà vu to the late 1990s, and that could mean higher stock prices ahead.

"In terms of the late '90s, there are certainly some echoes and interesting comparisons that we're following," Wells Fargo's institutional equity strategist, Gina Martin Adams, told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday.

In 1998 the S&P 500 fell more than 15 percent from July to October before resuming its advance and finishing the year with more than 20 percent returns. "We cannot help but note the similarities to the 1998 emerging market financial crisis, and note that it took Fed action to calm the market then," said Martin Adams. A highly anticipated Fed meeting kicks off next week as investors anxiously wait to see if Janet Yellen will hike interest rates.

For Martin Adams, when it comes to the market, the two most important similarities between the current environment and 1998 are the swift decline in crude oil coupled with a sharp rise in the dollar, and the common sector leaders.

"Right before the 1998 crisis in stocks and the broader financial market, we did have a 60 percent decline in oil prices and a roughly 30 percent rise in the dollar. That's about where we are now." In the last 12 months WTI crude oil prices have fallen more than 50 percent while the U.S. dollar index has risen 14 percent in the same period.

Read MoreLeon Cooperman: Why this bull market isn't over

"It's no wonder why the S&P 500 is going through a pretty significant correction in response to the massive destruction in the currency and commodity markets," she continued. "This is a commodity led crisis."

»Read more
  Tuesday, 1 Sep 2015 | 2:22 PM ET

The bull market is over: Louise Yamada

Posted By: Amanda Diaz

The market turmoil continued Tuesday as weak data out of China pushed all major U.S. indices down more than 2 percent. The S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq composite have now fallen a respective 6.5, 9.5 and 1 percent year to date, and according to one renown technician, the move may have signaled the end of one of the longest-running bull markets in history.

Looking at a chart of the S&P 500, Louise Yamada noted that momentum has been declining for four months, which by her work, is a "classic" sell signal.

"This is suggesting to me that we are looking at a bear market," said Yamada said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." Yamada noted that the last two times the market saw a similar shift in momentum were in January 2008 and June 2000.

»Read more
  Sunday, 30 Aug 2015 | 5:13 PM ET

Crazy like a fox? Whipsaw market may be rational

Posted By: Alex Rosenberg

The stock market has suffered wild swings over the past two weeks, declining sharply before staging a powerful two-day bounce that erased some of the initial losses.

Read MoreThe markets were a roller coaster this week

The speed of the moves, particularly after a long period of market quiescence, has led some to suggest that the market is dominated by thoughtless "algos" (or automated) trading—or perhaps is simply irrational.

But in fact, there may be a way to make sense of the swift move lower—if not on an day-by-day basis, then at least in a slightly broader context. Indeed, a classic finance paper dating back more than a decade may provide a coherent explanation behind why markets might be crazy like a fox.

»Read more

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