• Yesterday (Thursday), WTI prices fell 2.13% while the USD strengthened 1.13% against the Euro. On cue, analysts and talking heads began to raise the WTI/USD inverse correlation argument to explain the price movements. Not so fast.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: GM, Gasoline and the Crude Booms Thursday, 6 Jan 2011 | 12:09 PM ET

    Be that as it may, there is a large consensus that crude oil is headed to $100 this year. That translates into around $3.30 for the U.S. consumer at the pump…and that could translate into a headache for GM’s shareholders.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: It's Oil Bears' Turn Wednesday, 5 Jan 2011 | 11:39 AM ET

    While the natural gas market consolidated yesterday after Monday’s moon-shot, crude oil bears assumed the spotlight on Tuesday. The spot market for February WTI dropped 4.6% (peak-to-trough) through the first two sessions of 2011. However, bearish momentum yesterday stalled just below the midpoint, 88.83, of a congestive range from the first half of December.

  • Schork Outlook: Does Natural Gas Have Staying Power? Tuesday, 4 Jan 2011 | 12:49 PM ET

    Counter to the historical tendency for Nymex natural gas values to peak in the fourth quarter, the spot market in New York kicked off the first quarter yesterday by surging 6½% to a new winter high, 4.689. This event was likely spurred by two factors.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Odds Favor $100 Crude Monday, 3 Jan 2011 | 11:01 AM ET

    Aside from Friday’s end-of-year surge, spot crude oil on the Nymex has gone nowhere since analysts at The Schork Report switched their daily trading bias into Neutral on December 07th.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Has NatGas Peaked for the Winter? Friday, 17 Dec 2010 | 11:49 AM ET

    With winter bearing down on key natural gas markets in the Midwest and East, the Nymex Henry Hub gas contract has never looked weaker. Yesterday the spot market for January delivery plunged by nearly 5% after the EIA reported a 164 Bcf drawdown in inventory last week. Mind you, there was nothing bullish about the report, i.e. a 164 Bcf draw is on the extreme of the seasonal norm.

  • According to the latest revelation from WikiLeaks, an official (name redacted) from Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), complained to visiting U.S. economic officers last February that China was profiting handsomely from a sweetheart deal between Caracas and Beijing.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: What Comes Out in December... Wednesday, 15 Dec 2010 | 12:08 PM ET

    Fourth-quarter crude oil supplies in the U.S are defined by two distinct phases.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Don't Bother Tracking US Dollar Tuesday, 14 Dec 2010 | 12:02 PM ET

    In the two weeks leading up to the Fed’s decision in early November to commence with QE2, NYMEX crude oil for January 2011 delivery rallied 7.8% from $80.88 to $87.16 and the U.S. dollar fell 3.4% against the euro, from €0.7285 to €0.7039; all on the assumption that the Fed’s actions, which are intended to spur inflation, would be bearish for the dollar and bullish for commodities.

  • Last week spot NYMEX crude oil traded through the $90 a barrel threshold. It was the first time since the implosion of the 2008 bubble that prompt barrels traded above this key psychological level. Be that as it may, the contract finished the week at a disappointing $87.79, down 1.6% Friday-to-Friday. Moreover, the contract failed above the neckline (≈$89.50) of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Ethanol Losing Favor With Everyone Friday, 10 Dec 2010 | 11:11 AM ET

    Bottom line, outside of the Corn Belt, ethanol is losing political favor on both the Left and Right, Democrats and Republicans.

  • To say the least, it was an inauspicious two-thirds of a quarter that usually produces the highest prints of the season.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: WTI Bears Have a Glimmer of Hope Wednesday, 8 Dec 2010 | 11:58 AM ET

    Spot Nymex crude oil traded above the $90-barrier for the first time since the implosion of the 2008 bubble. Crude oil for January delivery hit an intra-day high of 90.76. It was the highest price paid for prompt delivery since October 2008.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: 2011 Looks Tough for Distillers Tuesday, 7 Dec 2010 | 10:38 AM ET

    Now that Al Gore has admitted his “mistake,” the U.S. ethanol industry finds itself at the center of what is setting up to be one ugly political spectacle.

  • Here we go again … oil bulls returned with a vengeance on the first of the month last week as desperate fund managers scrambled in a last ditch effort to salvage what has been a rather dismal year for most of them thus far, writes Stephen Schork.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: 'Troubling' Crude Numbers Friday, 3 Dec 2010 | 11:13 AM ET

    As first reported by our friend Joshua Schneyer at Reuters, far greater volumes of crude oil than previously reported are flowing from the U.S. Midwest (PADD II) into the epicenter of the U.S. refinery market in the Gulf Coast (PADD III). This is troubling.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: The Short-Run Supply Issue Thursday, 2 Dec 2010 | 11:42 AM ET

    Yesterday (Wednesday), spot Nymex gasoline for January delivery surged by 11.4 cents a gallon (+5.2%) on an apparent physical squeeze in the Northeast. The contract was lower past midnight EST, but as soon as it went positive (around 4am ET) the rally was on.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Time to Trade Technicals? Wednesday, 1 Dec 2010 | 12:18 PM ET

    With the implicit volatility in futures contracts, market participants turn to options contracts as a way to hedge risk.

  • Schork Oil Outlook: Is Gasoline Stifling Recovery? Tuesday, 30 Nov 2010 | 10:44 AM ET

    On Wednesday of last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its latest personal income and expenditure figures. The former came in at 0.5% for October, above analyst expectations of a 0.4% increase, while expenditure, or spending, came in at 0.4%, slightly below analyst expectations of a 0.5% increase, but much better than the 0.2% increase seen in September.

  • Schork Outlook: NatGas Traders Watching Fundamentals Monday, 29 Nov 2010 | 11:31 AM ET

    In last Wednesday’s edition of The Schork Report, we expressed our disagreement with the 2.00 MMbbl draw in crude inventories expected by analysts from the DOE report.