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Byron Wien Expects ‘Trouble Ahead’

Wednesday, 12 Jun 2013 | 12:58 PM ET
Byron Wien Expects 'Trouble Ahead'
Wednesday, 12 Jun 2013 | 12:09 PM ET
The stock market is beginning to sense headwinds unrelated to quantitative easing, Byron Wien of Blackstone Advisory Partners says.

The stock market is beginning to sense headwinds unrelated to quantitative easing, Blackstone Advisory Vice Chairman Byron Wien said Wednesday.

"I think while valuations are still fair, I think the market's made a lot of progress, and I think there's some trouble ahead," he said.

"The trouble is that profit margins, in my opinion, have peaked and that earnings are going to be disappointing in the second half, and that's what the market is beginning to sense."

On CNBC's "Fast Money," Wien said it wasn't the possibility that the Federal Reserve would begin to reduce its asset purchases.

"The Fed may taper, but if they taper from 85 to 60, that's still an enormous amount of liquidity being poured into the market," he said, adding that three-quarters of that liquidity "goes into financial assets and not the real economy."

Byron Wien: I'm 'Suspicious' of This Rally
Byron Wien of Blackstone Advisory Partners doesn't expect a bear market, but he does think the current rally has been too enthusiastic.

Following a bull run in 2013, the stock market appeared to be looking for "reality," Wien added.

"The market is looking for certain kinds of reality," he said. "Tapering is a negative. Disappointment in earnings would be a negative. Evidence that profit margins have peaked is a negative, and I think there's some negatives ahead, and I think the market has done very well.

"Do you realize that it's been up four months without three down days in a row?"

Wien noted, "You have to go back to 1935 to find another period like that."

(Read More: 'You Have to Buy Some Risk': Pro)

Wien also called 2.20 percent interest rates "a very, very low yield."

Historically, the 10-year U.S. Treasury has traded at the nominal growth rate of the economy, Wien said, which would put rates around 4 percent.

"There's a lot of room for rates to rise," he added, something that the market realized. "It's anticipating higher rates."

Wien expected the S&P 500 to gain 15 percent in 2013 and real GDP growth at 2 percent.

(Read More: Byron Wien: How to Live Forever and Other Lessons)

Trader disclosure: On June 12, 2013, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Jon Najarian is long JOY; Jon Najarian is long KOG; Jon Najarian is long EEM puts; Jon Najarian is long SCSS; Jon Najarian is long UVXY; Simon Baker is long AAPL; Simon Baker is long GS; Simon Baker is long JPM; Simon Baker is long INTC; Simon Baker is long CSCO; Simon Baker is long FB; Simon Baker is long GOOG; Simon Baker is long HPQ; Pete Najarian is long AAPL; Pete Najarian is long BAC; Pete Najarian is long JPM; Pete Najarian is long MS; Pete Najarian is long XLF; Pete Najarian is long INTC; Pete Najarian is long BBRY; Pete Najarian is long SBUX; Pete Najarian is long FB; Pete Najarian is long MSFT; Pete Najarian is long SE; Pete Najarian is short SBOX; Steve Weiss is long BAC; Steve Weiss is long C.

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