Cramer’s bull market in beer
If you've got the time – Cramer's got the trade. (That's an homage to a popular beer campaign launched in the 1970's - scroll to the bottom to find out which one)
"It's looking like we've got a burgeoning, red hot bull market in the beer stocks," mused Cramer.
According to Nielsen, for the four weeks ending on August 3rd, beer sales in the U.S. were up 3.8%, a noteworthy increase from the 1.8% increase in the previous four weeks.
The Mad Money host always does his homework, and he's found a second 'tell' to support the thesis - he believes results from Boston Beer confirm demand has increased for beer.
"Craft beers like Sam Adams have been sweeping the country, and you can see that in Boston Beer's earnings report," Cramer explained. The company delivered $1.45 of earnings per share, an 11-cent beat, it's revenues came in higher than expected, rising 22.9% year over year, shipments were up 22%, and the company gave upside guidance for the full year. In response, Boston Beer shot up from $178 to $204, a 14.6% move in a single day's trading. "
Although Boston Beer may provide a valuable 'tell' Cramer does not think the way to harness the trend is with Boston Beer stock.
"My issue with Boston Beer is that the stock's already up over 50% year-to-date, and it's now trading at 34 times next year's earnings estimates. Although I think Boston Beer is a terrific company, the valuation is extremely stretched. At these levels I'd ring the register," Cramer said.
Instead, the Mad Money host is a buyer of Anheuser-Busch Inbev, the company behind Budweiser, Stella Artois, Becks and more.
Cramer thinks a number of positive catalysts are coming together that favor this stock.
"BUD has been raising prices—that was supposed to really hurt sales—but it seems that the price hikes haven't done much to hurt demand. Meanwhile, BUD posted its first positive margin improvement in five quarters," he said.
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Also, "In June, BUD closed on its $20 billion acquisition of Grupo Modelo, and I think the synergies from this deal should drive some nice earnings growth going forward," Cramer added.
On top of that Cramer thinks the stock is relatively cheap.
"BUD sells for 17.4 times next year's earnings estimates, with a 7.1% long-term growth rate, and I think that's a fair price considering all the good things going this company. Of course, I'd like it even more on a pullback."
On a related note, if you're looking for something stronger than beer, Cramer said you might want to sip on Diageo, the company behind Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan and more.
"The stock has been held back by its humungous exposure to emerging market countries," Cramer said, "If you believe, as I do, that the rest of the world is starting to rebound, including Europe, then Diageo could be a terrific catch-up play."
*'If you've got the time, we've got the beer,' was the slogan for Miller beer.
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