Is this is a market signal that inflation is on its way?

Published Wed, Mar 25 20157:03 AM EDTUpdated Wed, Mar 25 20158:43 AM EDT

Patti Domm @in/patti-domm-9224884/@pattidomm

Could that sudden surge in prices across commodities markets be an early warning sign that inflation is about to re-emerge? Metals, grains and energy all bounced in lockstep March 18 when the dollar collapsed after the Fed's post-meeting announcements. Since then the Thomson Reuters/Core CRB index, representing 19 commodities, has risen about 3 percent while the dollar index has lost nearly 2.5 percent. It traded slightly lower Tuesday, as commodities markets were mixed. "The metals turned for the better, crude oil turned for the better. The term structures are starting to narrow," said Dennis Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter. "There are a lot of shifts that took place last week as the dollar makes what appears to be an important interim top." Gartman said the trend remains for higher dollar, lower commodities prices for now, and the move should for now be viewed as "interim." "Until you've made a low, tested it, held it and taken out the previous interim top, you have to say the previous trend is intact," he said. However, he added, "This has the look of something more important than anything we've seen in the last 18 to 24 months." Wheat futures, meanwhile, were slightly lower Tuesday but are up more than 4 percent since the Fed announcement, and gold futures were up more than 3.8 percent. West Texas Intermediate futures , weaker Tuesday, were up more than 9 percent since the Fed meeting. Read More Gold headed higher on U.S. rates McNeil Curry, global head of technical strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said it appears the CRB index did bottom on the day of that Fed meeting March 18, along with other markets. "You have a lot of conditions for it. It looks like a bullish reversal. Gold did it, too," said Curry. "You saw a bunch of stuff start to indicate a squeeze to the topside." Curry said the gains by the euro, yen and sterling against the dollar appear to be short term trends. His target for the euro is $1.10 to $1.11 on the upside and $1.04 should be the bottom of the current range. The euro was trading above $1.09 to the dollar Tuesday. On Tuesday, consumer price inflation data for February showed the first increase since October. The CPI was up 0.2 percent, but economists don't see a big pickup in inflation anytime soon. Consumer prices rebounded on the back of higher gasoline prices, higher for the first time since June. In the 12 months through February, consumer inflation was unchanged. Read More Consumer prices rise for first time since October The Fed has been frustrated by super-low levels of inflation, but it has stressed it believes there will be a slow move higher to its 2 percent target. Therefore, any move higher in inflation that looks sustainable will be seized by the markets as a sign of pending Fed rate hikes. "I think the most important leading indicators (on inflation) will be the CRB and the dollar. Watch them and they'll point us in the right direction," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. "The low (in the CRB) was on March 18, and we've been ticking up since then. You're at the low end of a pretty ugly bear market," said McCarthy. The CRB has been trading at a six-year low. Read More Rising dollar good for stocks?

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Could that sudden surge in prices across commodities markets be an early warning sign that inflation is about to re-emerge?

Metals, grains and energy all bounced in lockstep March 18 when the dollar collapsed after the Fed's post-meeting announcements.

Since then the Thomson Reuters/Core CRB index, representing 19 commodities, has risen about 3 percent while the dollar index has lost nearly 2.5 percent. It traded slightly lower Tuesday, as commodities markets were mixed.