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Fidel's Out, Investors In?  He Thinks So
Andrew Fisher | 19 Feb 2008 | 03:34 PM ET
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Picks and Pans

News that Fidel Castro plans to step down as Cuba's head of state after nearly half a century in power raises more questions than it answers.

Will things really change that much, with Castro's brother assuming power and Fidel holding onto the leadership of the Communist party?

How much of a chance is there that the long-standing U.S. trade embargo against Cuba will be lifted?

While investors wait for answers, there are ways to play Cuba right now.  No one knows better than Tom Herzfeld, a veteran investor in the region through his Caribbean Basin Fund

[CUBA  Loading...      ()   ].

The fund surged on the news.

"It's a significant development," Herzfeld told CNBC.  "It's, I think, a step closer to resumption of U.S. trade with Cuba."

Fund components that gained sharply include maritime freight companies like Trailer Bridge

[TRBR  Loading...      ()   ] and Seaboard [SEB  Loading...      ()   ], and cruise lines like Royal Caribbean [RCL  Loading...      ()   ] and Carnival [CCL  Loading...      ()   ].

"We've been shifting our portfolio over the last six months, since Fidel became ill," Herzfeld explained.  "We started shifting the portfolio away from companies that we thought would do well regardless of if the embargo would be lifted to companies which have more of a Cuba focus, and may not necessarily be doing well now."

And Herzfeld is ready for even bigger changes.

"The third phase of our strategy will be direct investment in Cuba, once we're legally free to do so," he said.

© 2008 CNBC.com

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