CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks ahead at where oil and precious metals are likely headed next week. Natural gas fell below $3, mostly due to the extremely mild winter so far. Prices could continue to fall, traders say.» Read More
The last time we discussed the domestic producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) we stated that “Consumers aren’t feeling the pain… yet.” The CPI for September was flat, whereas analysts were looking for a 0.1% increase and we were specifically concerned that the CPI of food rose just 0.32%, stating “we do not expect this to last.”
What is most peculiar given that California is one of the largest crude oil producers in the Lower 48 (second only to Texas) is that employment in the Mining/Logging sector (which includes oil and gas extraction) is down 1½%. Conversely, this sector in Texas is up by 51%!
Whereas it took the bulls 15 sessions to rally the market for December oil 10.2%, it took only a quarter of that time for them to give it all back. As such, bulls now find themselves having to defend $80 when just a week ago $90 looked like a slam-dunk.
Since the U.S. Fed announced its plan to purchase $600 billion of Treasury Bonds (QE2) two weeks ago, the U.S. dollar has rallied 5.3% against the euro. In turn, after a slight decoupling, Nymex crude oil has plunged 7.4% (peak-to-trough) over the last four sessions.
Move over, Mr. Obama. Donald Trump is “mulling over” whether to run for president.
Touting his energy plan to get America off foreign oil, financier T. Boone Pickens told CNBC Wednesday that the U.S. is importing oil from its "enemies."
Despite reports, U.S. gas producers have not given up on drilling. Thus, whether we are talking about anecdotes from the Fed or earnings statements from one of the largest gas producers in U.S., the bottom line is clear...
The EIA released its latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), a forecast of global supply, demand and prices. There is enough data for several reports, but key takeaways included WTI prices, which the EIA forecasts will average "about $83" this winter, before rising to $87 by Q4 2011. Did this take the wind out of the bulls’ sails?
Much ado was made in the market yesterday regarding Tuesday’s release of The Conference Board’s Global Economic Outlook. Of particular interest, especially to Yankeephobes from the schadenfreude swamps of the Left was the finding that China may overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by 2012… with may being the key auxiliary verb.
According to the monthly numbers from the EIA, underground stores of working gas increased by a staggering 1.079 Tcf through the first phase (April to June) of this season. Based on the variation in the time series we have seen since the start of the decade, we would have expected an injection of no more than 1.064 Tcf.
Yesterday’s issue of The Schork Report stated that “Pundits are now beginning to raise the specter of ‘decoupling,’ where a higher dollar moves in line with commodity prices. We’re not falling for it.” Here's why.
If Tuesday’s mid-term U.S. elections and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting were not enough to cause agita for you, then there is always the chance Friday morning’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will do it.
With the Fed deciding to purchase another $600 billion of U.S. government debt ($100 billion above the market consensus), the question is, how much lower can the dollar go? In other words, how much higher can crude oil go?
Natural gas production in the Lower 48 U.S. increased for the seventh time this year in August. According to the EIA’s 914-Survey, month-on-month output rose by 1.8% to a record 65.79 Bcf/day, writes Stephen Schork.
This White House failed to appreciate the true mess they inherited and instead focused its energy on exploiting the financial crisis to further its redistributionist mission to transfer money from the haves to the have-nots, i.e. from the productive side of the economy to the unproductive side of the economy.
However, all goods things must come to end and for gas bears we believe it has. As we noted throughout October, the historical tendency is for gas to rally (and peak) in the fourth quarter.
Apropos yesterday’s Trading the Technicals section… have the bears in natural gas hit rock bottom? Perhaps. Over the last three weeks ended Monday, spot natural gas futures for December delivery fell by 17%, from a 4.207 high print on October 7th to a 3.500 low print on October 25th. This selloff was fueled by a large influx of bearish money, writes Stephen Schork.
Over the last five weeks crude oil supplies in the U.S. have increased by 7.87 MMbbls. That is virtually spot-on to the seasonal norm. Supplies at the NYMEX delivery hub in Cushing, OK have dropped by 1.09 MMbbls. That too is well within the parameter of the seasonal norm, but it is not the flood of oil we were expecting, writes Stephen Schork.
Tuesday saw the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rise to 50.2 in October, above the 49.9 expected by analysts but still sluggish compared to historical norms. September was revised slightly higher from 48.5 to 48.6., writes Stephen Schork.
Yesterday China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NRDC) announced that it would be increasing retail gasoline and diesel prices by 3%. This would negate the ~3.00% cuts seen in June, writes Stephen Schork.