Carney's Scorecard: 2012


Retirement Predictions: F

As I mentioned, I did a pretty well last year. My three big misses were my predictions that Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein would retire and that China would experience a political crisis. Dimon and Blankfein are still there—and China navigated a leadership change without crisis. I award myself an F on each of these.

Arab Spring: A

Let's move on to my better subjects. I predicted that the Arab Spring of 2011 would give way to violence in 2012. Recent events in Egypt, Syria, and Israel bear that out.

European Central Bank: A

My prediction about Europe was a home run. "Eventually, perhaps next year, the European Central Bank will become much more active in preventing the bond market from breaking the unified currency," I wrote. That's exactly what happened.

Stock Market: A

My prediction for the stock market was also a homer. "Sometime next year, the stock market will experience a huge rally that will make suckers of all the pessimists like me. Shorts will get clobbered; those sitting on the sidelines will look foolish," I wrote.

Looking ahead to 2014


  • Hot Commodity Prospects in 2013

    CNBC's Sharon Epperson shares her outlook on oil, gold, copper and corn next year, and Dan Dicker, MercBloc president, provides his energy forecast for 2013 and the best way to play oil and gas.

  • Defense in the New Year

    Defense companies are sure to be affected if we go over the "fiscal cliff" because of automatic spending cuts to the industry, reports CNBC's Jane Wells.

  • Travel Trends in the New Year

    CNBC's Simon Hobbs takes a look at some of the major travel trends in 2013.


Predictions 2013 Slideshows