Months after the coronavirus pandemic sent millions of U.S. office workers home, many have taken promises of extended or permanent work-from-home to change their office environment entirely and move to a new location.
But rather than this migration spelling out the "death" of the city, as some are predicting, other experts say mid-size and rising cities could get a boost from residents seeking a lower cost of living, more space to work from home and access to a typical city's cultural offerings once widespread social-distancing restrictions lift.
William Frey, a demographer with Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program, says that while population growth in New York, San Francisco and Chicago has slowed in the past five years, cities in Western and Southeastern regions have seen steady growth.
It's possible that moving patterns as a result of the pandemic could accelerate this trend.
People between the ages of 20 to 35, the demographic most likely to move around, may avoid cities with high costs of living that outpace earning power, Frey tells CNBC Make It. "Middle class workers in a variety of industries and occupations are moving to places where it doesn't cost as much to live, and they can still do well because the economy has picked up there."
But with the health threat of the pandemic still causing devastating job losses for many industries, especially those that require in-person work, cities with high populations of residents who support the economy while working from home may fare well in the months and year ahead.
Cities including Raleigh, North Carolina; Denver, Colorado; and Austin, Texas; are among the top cities that already have higher shares of people who regularly work from home, according to a Bloomberg analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau's 2018 American Community Survey. Nationally, 5.3% of employees reportedly work from home, though shares are higher in the following 10 cities.
"I do think the expected rejection of cities has never quite panned out over the past 4,000 years," says Mark Muro, a senior fellow with Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program. "The fundamental social function of cities remains extremely strong. If anything, it got stronger in the last decade with the supercharging of digital economies relying on intense exchanges among people in these tech industries. All that remains in place."
Here are the top 10 rising cities with higher-than-average shares of residents who work from home, along with cost of living and housing information based on most recent Census data.
1. Raleigh, North Carolina
Share of people who work-from-home: 9.1%
Median household income: $63,891 per year
Median rent: $1,074 per month
Median home value: $263,700
Estimated population: 474,069 people
2. Denver, Colorado
Share of people who work-from-home: 8.7%
Median household income: $63,793 per year
Median rent: $1,217 per month
Median home value: $357,300
Estimated population: 727,211 people
3. Austin, Texas
Share of people who work-from-home: 8.7%
Median household income: $67,462 per year
Median rent: $1,225 per month
Median home value: $312,300
Estimated population: 978,908 people
4. Portland, Oregon
Share of people who work-from-home: 8.1%
Median household income: $65,740 per year
Median rent: $1,187 per month
Median home value: $383,600
Estimated population: 654,741 people
5. Sacramento, California
Share of people who work-from-home: 7.9%
Median household income: $58,456 per year
Median rent: $1,179 per month
Median home value: $313,400
Estimated population: 513,624 people
6. Atlanta, Georgia
Share of people who work-from-home: 7.6%
Median household income: $55,279 per year
Median rent: $1,099 per month
Median home value: $261,400
Estimated population: 506,811 people
7. Phoenix, Arizona
Share of people who work-from-home: 7.4%
Median household income: $54,765 per year
Median rent: $999 per month
Median home value: $217,400
Estimated population: 1,680,992 people
8. Tampa, Florida
Share of people who work-from-home: 7.3%
Median household income: $50,909 per year
Median rent: $1,082 per month
Median home value: $217,400
Estimated population: 399,700 people
9. Charlotte, North Carolina
Share of people who work-from-home: 7.3%
Median household income: $60,886 per year
Median rent: $1,086 per month
Median home value: $200,500
Estimated population: 885,708 people
10. San Francisco, California
Share of people who work-from-home: 7.0%
Median household income: $104,552 per year
Median rent: $1,805 per month
Median home value: $1,009,500
Estimated population: 881,549 people
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