Futures Now Futures Now: Blog

More

  Wednesday, 3 May 2017 | 7:00 AM ET

Strong earnings won't prevent 'Trump rally' from buckling, here's why

The stock market rally could be losing its muscle.

A top strategist at Russell Investments is warning investors that strong earnings are not enough to keep stocks at record levels — and there's nothing Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen or President Donald Trump can do about it.

"We are surprised at the resilience of the U.S. market. We recognize it's been a good earnings season," said Mark Eibel, the firm's director of client investment strategies, on Tuesday's "Futures Now." "You're really kind of banking on earnings staying or improving at this level particularly in light of the Fed raising rates at least one more time this year and until some policy gets through the administration."

Since Trump won the November presidential election, the S&P 500 and the Dow have soared 12 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

The Nasdaq has been the biggest winner. The index has rocketed 17 percent since the election, and broke the 6,000 level for the first time ever last week. It's registered all-time intraday highs 29 times since just Jan. 1.

Wall Street has viewed Trump's business-friendly policies as favorable to stocks and the economy. If the majority of his legislation makes it through Congress, Eibel argues a lot of the gains could already be priced into the market.

"Until some of the promises are fulfilled, you are kind of left with earnings," added Eibel.

"The struggle moving forward from here is we know we are rolling off easy comparables from a year ago particularly in the energy space. So we won't have that moving forward as much through the rest of the year."

Eibel also points to the first quarter's disappointing gross domestic product numbers and softer U.S. consumer spending as catalysts which could slow the rally, and cause stocks to move "sideways" or even "downward."

The most effective way to keep profits growing would be to look abroad, according to Eibel.

"We just seem as if we're priced for perfection here — where around the rest of the globe, you can get the same kind of story. There are politics everywhere. And with an improving political situation in Europe, you get cheaper stocks," he said.

Sign-up for the "Futures Now" newsletter here.

»Read more
  Sunday, 30 Apr 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

David Stockman: Trump's tax plan is 'dead on arrival' and Wall St. is 'delusional'

Posted ByAmanda Diaz

David Stockman has a stern message for investors: They're living in a fantasy land about Trump.

In a recent interview on CNBC's "Futures Now," the former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan said that "Wall Street is totally misreading Washington," and President Trump's promises of tax reform will be "dead before arrival."

The president is "essentially a 70-year old kid in a candy store who wants one of everything: More for defense, veterans, border walls, law enforcement, infrastructure and 'phenomenal' tax cuts, too—without the inconvenience of paying for any of it," said Stockman.

Of the proposed tax bill announced this week, he said, "It's a wonderful fantasy…but there's no way to pay for the $7.5 trillion cost of the main features."

'Total calamity'

The White House announced a one-page tax reform plan on Wednesday, and some of the points Stockman highlighted include: Three tax brackets, double standard deduction and the reduction of corporate and non-corporate business taxes down to 15 percent.

In a research note this week, Goldman Sachs pegged the cost of the tax plan to just under $5 trillion, when factoring in key changes such as repealing of the state and local tax, and a 35 percent top marginal rate instead of 33 percent. Goldman analysts expect the tax bill is "fairly likely" to become law, but warned progress could be slow.

"I like [the tax plan] but you have to pay for it either with a new tax like the border adjustment tax, which is dead, or spending cuts which Trump has ruled off the table," Stockman explained. "What you have down there is a total fiscal calamity that is going to basically dominate Washington."

Stockman expects a "constant fiscal crisis and stalemate" in D.C., which will ultimately delay the "good stuff," like a tax cut, from ever happening.

Of Trump's first 100 days in office, Stockman again referred to the White House as a "pop up store giving out candy before the 100th day to say they've accomplished something." Adding, "this isn't a serious plan, it can't be done. And I think it's only indicative of the huge trouble that's brewing down there in the beltway."

Despite Trump's somewhat tumultuous first few months in office, the stock market has been resilient. The S&P 500 Index is up 11 percent since the election and 5 since the inauguration, the third best performance under a new administration since World War 2. On Friday, the S&P traded within 1 percent of its all-time high.

Eventually, however, Stockman expects the drama in D.C. to trickle into equities, sparking a significant pullback.

"I don't know what the stock market is thinking but if they have faith in a giant fiscal stimulus and tax cut then it's a delusional faith that's going to be badly disappointed and I think fairly soon," he added.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 26 Apr 2017 | 10:10 AM ET

The US economy is ‘terminally ill,’ here’s where you should invest instead: Marc Faber

Posted ByAnnie Pei

"Dr. Doom" Marc Faber says the U.S. economy is "terminally ill," and the current outlook doesn't seem to be improving.

"The U.S. has run a deficit for [so long]," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." "The conditions today are more fragile than they were ever before, and unless somebody comes and introduces minus 5 percent interest rates, I think the economy is really not in such a great shape."

"I'm actually amazed that people are so optimistic," the editor and publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report" added.

Faber had previously appeared on CNBC calling for a giant correction of as much as 40 percent in the market. His bold calls have led various analysts and traders to question his market predictions.

Nevertheless, Faber does see ways for investors to play global markets despite his view that the U.S. economic outlook is poor. In addition to emerging markets, India in particular, Faber says that Europe is a good investment.

"I would rather build up cash positions and eventually invest in the euro," said Faber. "I think the euro is attractive and fairly priced. I think European stocks are also relatively attractive."

Regarding individual sectors, Faber encourages investors to look at interest rate sensitive stocks and infrastructure plays. REITs will also "do relatively well," he added, as well as consumer staples stocks, which have rallied almost 8 percent year to date.

And while technology stocks have been the best-performing group under the Trump presidency, Faber actually warns that "tech is very uncertain," and investors should be cautious when looking at the sector.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 26 Apr 2017 | 7:30 AM ET

Trader slams Marc Faber: You have been so wrong, why are you right now?

Posted ByAmanda Diaz

Marc Faber is known for his dire market predictions, but after years of calling for a correction that has yet to happen, the so-called Dr. Doom found himself under fire from a "Futures Now" trader.

In a heated exchange Tuesday on CNBC, trader Scott Nations pressed the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report publisher over his dismal forecast for stocks.

"You've been saying the same thing essentially since 2012 and have been consistently wrong," said a frustrated Nations. He pointed out that on Tuesday, the Russell 2000 hit an intraday high and the Nasdaq composite reached an intraday and closing high. The Dow and S&P 500 came within points of their respective records.

"If someone piled into stocks in 2012, 2013, 2014 or 2015 they've done pretty well. Why were you so wrong then, and why should we think you're so right now?" Nations asked.

Faber defended his call saying, "I warned of a correction in 2012 and we had one." A correction is defined as a move of 10 percent or more from peak to trough, and in April 2012 through June 2012, the S&P 500 fell more than 11 percent.

"I tell you when all is over people will love me for having warned them to have all their money in stocks," added Faber. "I'm used to people like you who always attack me."

Still, Nations wasn't convinced and he pointed out that over the last five years as Faber has called for a market crash U.S. equities are up 75 percent. "I'm asking a simple question, 'what about your analysis was wrong [from the last five years] that leads you to believe you're more informed now?'"

The perma-bear responded by saying that the market is "far higher" and the eight-year bull market has gotten long in the tooth. "I also have to correct one point you're making. In 2007 and 2012, I was relatively positive about bonds and I argued that emerging markets would go up strongly," he said. "Some emerging markets have gone up vertically and bonds have actually performed quite well."

Indeed, the TLT long-dated Treasury ETF is up more than 40 percent in the last 10 years, meanwhile the Emerging Markets ETF, the EEM, is outperforming the S&P in 2017 but has underperformed over the long term. Faber maintains that there are better investments outside of the United States, looking to Europe and India for more meaningful gains.

"You're accusing me of being wrong? I laugh at it," Faber concluded.

»Read more
  Sunday, 23 Apr 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

A strategist tells investors what to do if the ‘Trump hype’ turns into the ‘Trump gripe’

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Geopolitical uncertainty and gridlock in Washington could spark a pullback in the markets, but one strategist is recommending a way to beat the market regardless of what happens on the Hill.

On CNBC's "Futures Now" last week, CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall laid out his "winning investment approach" for trading equities year-round. As April winds down and markets head into the old "sell in May and go away" adage, Stovall advised that investors should actually rotate, rather than get out of, the market amid doubts about President Donald Trump's policy agenda.

"You are better off rotating than retreating," he said. "Basically, like whitewater rafting, you let the market take you where it needs to go and in the summertime, it traditionally wants to go defensive."

As an example, Stovall suggests that if an investor had been in the market from November through to the end of April, they could rotate into a 50 percent exposure to consumer staples and a 50 percent exposure in health care, which they would then hold until October.

This strategy would have investors coming out of the more cyclical sectors such as financials and materials, which investors could then go back into once the cycle begins again.

This "six month defensive, six month cyclical" approach could be especially useful for investors if the so-called Trump rally were to come to a halt.

"What we've been experiencing right now is the Trump hype, and I think what we're worried about is it morphing into the Trump gripe," said Stovall. "Investors are basically excited, but nothing is really coming through."

Stovall referred specifically to the failure of Trump's health care reform plans, taken off the table before even a House vote could occur, and the uncertainty facing the tax reform and infrastructure policies that he had campaigned on.

The strategist believes that if Trump's plans remain in limbo on the Hill into 2018, the standstill "could probably trigger a correction of 10 to 20 percent" in the market. But if that were to occur, a rotation into the defensive sectors could help investors during the pullback, as "it's the defensive sectors that tend to lose less when the market itself goes down."

Markets continued to hover near all-time highs on Friday, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average did recover from back to back triple digit losses during the week. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on Thursday.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 19 Apr 2017 | 1:33 PM ET

These are two major risks to the rally, strategist says

Posted ByAnnie Pei
  Sunday, 16 Apr 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

Trader rips perma-bear investor Peter Schiff: ‘You can’t have your own facts!’

Posted ByAnnie Pei

Peter Schiff is known for making bold and controversial calls about the markets. Yet in a recent interview with CNBC's "Futures Now," his alarmist rhetoric had trader Scott Nations crying foul.

In the heated showdown, the NationsShares president interrupted Schiff as he defended his past predictions about the Federal Reserve, and said the U.S. economy has "been in a recession for this entire recovery." Schiff is a relentless critic of Fed policy, and for years has suggested the U.S. dollar was on the verge of an outright crash, encouraging investors to buy bullion.

"You can't have your own facts!" said Nations on CNBC last week. "You said in 2015 the Fed wouldn't raise rates and that QE4 was next," Nations said, referring to a fourth round of massive quantitative easing by the Fed. He added that Schiff has been "fundamentally wrong."

Schiff has long maintained that the Fed cannot continue to raise interest rates without sparking a major market crash, and urged investors to instead buy gold. That made Nations accuse him of trying to "scare" investors into buying the commodity for his own benefits.

"I recommend what I think is going to make investors money. Gold is outperforming the U.S. stock market this year by triple," the Euro Pacific Capital CEO responded. "Buying gold and having gold in your portfolio has been a wise choice for investors."

In 2013 Schiff notoriously called for gold to hit $5,000 per ounce, a prediction that hasn't quite panned out with gold only trading near $1,300.

Nevertheless, Schiff reiterated his faith in his market predictions, especially his call that the economic outlook is problematic.

"Even [former Fed chairman] Alan Greenspan is forecasting stagflation, and he ought to know because he wrote the playbook that Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen are following," said Schiff.

"You can make fun of me, you can tell all the jokes you want, but I'm going to be laughing all the way to the bank," he retorted to end the debate.

»Read more
  Wednesday, 12 Apr 2017 | 1:26 PM ET

Here’s why earnings will give investors something to smile about, according to one strategist

Posted ByAnnie Pei
  Sunday, 9 Apr 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

This strategist thinks the market is too invested in Trump, and should look at this instead

Posted ByAnnie Pei

When it comes to stocks over the next few months, one strategist is telling investors to look beyond the Trump administration and at the market's fundamentals instead.

The so-called "Trump rally" has seemed to cool off as stocks sit near all-time highs, but have generally traded in a range since the end of February. On that note, Eaton Vance's chief equity investment officer, Eddie Perkin, told CNBC that if investors look even deeper, the Trump rally may not be because of President Donald Trump after all.

"If we look at how the markets performed in the first quarter of the year, the stock market overall was very strong and I think a lot of people are attributing that to the Trump rally," Perkin said last week on CNBC's "Futures Now."

However, "if you look at the underlying stocks and sectors that worked, it was actually the stocks that had lagged previously," he added.

Following the November election, investors had their eyes on a variety of sectors that they believed would benefit under Trump's pro-business and deregulation-based policies. Financials and materials, for example, were two of the hottest "Trump trades" in the first few months out of the election.

Yet now, financials have slumped and are sitting almost flat from the start of the year, and materials have actually faded away from their year to date highs and are trading sideways. Instead, technology and health care have become two of the best-performing sectors.

A '2018 story'

Health care, which has been in the spotlight due to stalled repeal and replace in Washington, is up over 7 percent year to date. Meanwhile tech has rallied nearly 12 percent in 2017. Tech stocks were expected to come under pressure as Trump aimed to target the H-1B visa hiring tool. T

he surge in both these groups leads Perkin to point out that the supposed Trump trades are not what have been driving the market this year.

So what should investors be looking at to get a read on the market? Perkin actually believes that earnings growth will be the biggest factor moving stocks and will set the markets up for the "2018 story." Analysts are predicting a second quarter straight of improved earnings, with Thomson Reuters IBES saying that if all earnings meet estimates, the S&P 500 Index would see 10 percent growth.

"I think the bull case for stocks is you've got a bit of earnings growth this year, and then you've got an inflection upward in 2018," said Perkin. "If that doesn't come through, then I'm a little reluctant to bet on further multiple expansion from here."

Perkin does believe, however, that should the Trump administration manage to pass a tax reform bill, then the markets will likely head higher off the news.

For the latest headlines and a peak at what's coming up on our "Futures Now" shows, sign up for the brand new "Futures Now" newsletter at: http://www.cnbc.com/futuresnowemail/.

»Read more
  Saturday, 8 Apr 2017 | 5:00 PM ET

Get ready for pumped up prices: RBC says oil could surge nearly 20%, and take gas with it

Contact Futures Now: Blog

  • Showtimes

    Watch Futures Now Tuesdays & Thursdays 1p ET exclusively on cnbc.com!

Follow Futures Now: Blog

Sponsor Links

  • CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex electronic trading platform and trading facilities in New York and Chicago.

  • Take your trading to the next level with a platform that lets you trade stocks, options, futures and forex all in one place with no platform or data with no trade minimums. Open an account with TD Ameritrade and get up to $600 cash.