Control of U.S. Senate, House still unknown with key midterm races too close to call

Emma Kinery
Chelsey Cox
Kevin Breuninger
Christina Wilkie

This was CNBC's live blog covering Tuesday's midterm elections. Wednesday's live blog can be found here.

Control of the U.S. House and Senate was still up in the air Wednesday morning, as states across the country tallied votes in neck-and-neck midterm election races.

A set of close contests will determine whether Democrats keep their slim majorities in the House and Senate, or if Republicans will seize control of one or both chambers of the legislature.

Democrats picked up a pivotal Senate seat in Pennsylvania with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman projected to defeat Republican Mehmet Oz. Critical Senate races in Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona were still unresolved, according to NBC News.

The balance of power may take days or even weeks to determine, especially in the Senate, where Georgia's race could be headed for a runoff in early December. Democrat Raphael Warnock has a 0.5 percentage point lead over GOP candidate Herschel Walker with 96% of the votes counted, but neither candidate has the more than 50% required by state election rules to clinch the seat.

NBC estimated that Republicans could end up with 220 seats — a narrow majority — in the House. But the party came into Election Day hoping to take commanding control of the chamber.

The outcome could make all the difference for President Joe Biden, whose legislative hopes rest on whether Democrats can push his agenda through a hyper-partisan Congress.

Millions of Americans also cast their votes in key races for governor, secretary of state and other offices down the ballot.

Correction: This blog was updated to correct the vote count in Georgia's Senate race. Warnock has the lead over Walker.

Visit NBC News for the latest governorSenate and House midterm elections results.

Wed, Nov 9 2022 9:20 AM EST

Some of Trump's favorite candidates disappoint on Election Day

Former U.S. President Donald Trump talks to the press on the grounds of his Mar-a-Lago resort on midterm elections night in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. November 8, 2022.

Former President Donald Trump hosted an election night party Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida resort, and invited a full pool of reporters to document what he hoped would be a Republican landslide.

But as returns began to come in Tuesday evening, the Republican rout driven by Trump's chosen candidates never materialized.

In one of the country's most high-profile races, Trump's handpicked Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, Dr. Mehmet Oz, lost to Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, according to NBC News. The result cost the GOP a Senate seat.

In Michigan, Trump-endorsed Republican Tudor Dixon lost a gubernatorial race, while 2020 election denier Kristina Karamo lost her Trump-backed bid for secretary of state, NBC projected.

In Arizona, Kari Lake, a former newscaster turned gubernatorial candidate who is one of Trump's most high-profile picks, trailed Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in a race that NBC considered too early to call. Trump-endorsed Senate hopeful Blake Masters, who is challenging Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, also lagged in a race that NBC said was too early to call.

— Christina Wilkie

Wed, Nov 9 2022 8:34 AM EST

Michigan, California and Vermont make abortion a state constitutional right

Los Angeles, CaliforniaSept. 26, 2022Signs at a pro-choice event at the Womens March Action Headquarters in Los Angeles on Oct. 3, 2022. Yes on1 signs on a table at the event.

Voters in Michigan, California and Vermont have amended their state constitutions to protect abortion as a right, NBC News projects.

Michigan will become a crucial safe haven for reproductive rights in the Midwest, a region where abortion access is shrinking as states such as Indiana and Ohio have passed very restrictive laws.

Although abortion was never under threat in liberal California and Vermont, the state constitutional amendments will protect access for future generations.

Women cheer as they hear early voting results indicating the passage of Proposal 3, a midterm ballot measure that enshrines abortion rights, during a Reproductive Freedom For All watch party on U.S. midterm election night in Detroit, Michigan, November 8, 2022. 

In conservative Kentucky, voters were asked whether the state constitution should be amended to say that it does not protect abortion as a right.

The votes are still being counted and NBC News has not made a call yet. So far, however, 51.4% of Kentuckians have voted against the anti-abortion measure while 48.6% have voted in favor with 82% of the vote in.

— Spencer Kimball

Wed, Nov 9 2022 7:39 AM EST

Republicans didn't see a 'red wave' as control of both chambers of Congress remains up for grabs

Pennsylvania Republican candidate for Governor Doug Mastriano and his wife Rebbie stand next to an image of former U.S. President Donald Trump on the 'Real America Speaks Team MAGA Election Bus' after arriving for a campaign rally ahead of the 2022 U.S. midterm elections in Newtown, Pennsylvania, November 7, 2022.

Ballots are still being tabulated from Tuesday's midterm elections leaving which party controls either chamber of Congress uncertain, but one thing is clear: The Republican "red wave" did not materialize.

Venture capitalist J.D. Vance scored an early win for Republicans, retaining Ohio's vacated U.S. Senate seat for the GOP by beating U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan. But Democrats saw critical wins in Pennsylvania where Lt. Gov. John Fetterman flipped a U.S. Senate seat blue by defeating TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz. Pennsylvania's Democratic attorney general, Josh Shapiro, won the governorship, beating state Sen. Doug Mastriano who attended the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Unlike the 2020 election, Pennsylvania was not among the last to be called, but several other critical races remain undetermined Wednesday morning. Senate races in Nevada and Arizona are still too close to call, with Georgia's U.S. Senate race looking likely to go into a December runoff. Neither party has claimed control of the U.S. House with several seats left uncalled. Republicans are still more likely to take control of the House majority, but it won't be with the margins they had hoped.

"Definitely not a Republican wave, that is for darn sure," said Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on NBC News on Tuesday evening. "A wave would have been, like, (winning) New Hampshire and Colorado."

Emma Kinery

Wed, Nov 9 2022 7:05 AM EST

Republican Mike Lee projected to hold onto Utah Senate seat

Sen. Mike Lee of Utah speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando, Florida, February 26, 2021.

Republican Sen. Mike Lee is projected by NBC News to hold onto his seat, with independent challenger Evan McMullin conceding early Wednesday morning.

Lee is the top Republican on several Senate committees and subcommittees. He serves as the ranking member of the Joint Economic Committee and subcommittees within the Judiciary and Energy and Natural Resources Committees.

McMullin told supporters at his election night headquarters in Taylorsville, Utah, that he'd called Lee to acknowledge his reelection, according to NBC News.

"I truly hope that he upholds his oath to the Constitution in his upcoming term," McMullin added.

— Lauren Feiner

Wed, Nov 9 2022 6:15 AM EST

Moscow and Ukraine watch as midterm results roll in

While the U.S. midterm election results roll in, the vote is being closely watched in Ukraine and Russia with both gauging how the election could impact the war and global geopolitics.

Moscow is seen to favor a win for the Republicans in the midterms in the hope that a big power shift could bring about a change in U.S. foreign policy toward Ukraine — and could deepen rumblings of discontent among Republicans over the massive financial support the U.S. is giving Kyiv to fight Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via a video link in Sochi, Russia November 2, 2022. 

There are some signs that bipartisan support for such immense and ongoing aid could be waning with prominent Republicans starting to question how long the U.S. largesse can continue, particularly against a backdrop of inflation, potential recession and rising living costs.

Russia could well hope that a shift in power after the midterm elections could herald a cooler attitude toward Ukraine, but analysts say Moscow could be disappointed unless former leader Donald Trump is able to return to power. Trump signaled he could announce next week a plan to run for the presidency again in 2024.

Read more here: Russia's hopes for a Republican landslide to hurt Ukraine are vanishing fast

— Holly Ellyatt

Wed, Nov 9 2022 3:40 AM EST

Pelosi says Democratic House candidates are 'strongly outperforming expectations'

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks during a bill enrollment ceremony for S. 3373, the SFC Heath Robinson Honoring our PACT Act of 2022 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., August 9, 2022.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said her party's congressional candidates beat expectations, as Republicans appeared on track to win fewer House seats than many thought entering Election Day.

"While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic Members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country," the California Democrat said.

Pelosi's party could still lose its narrow majority in the House. But discussion of a Republican rout died down as votes were counted across the country.

While NBC News has not projected House control, an NBC estimate suggests Republicans will hold 220 seats and Democrats will have 215 after the election.

— Jacob Pramuk

Wed, Nov 9 2022 2:39 AM EST

The 2022 midterm elections matter less to stock markets than investors think

During every election season, candidates from both sides of the aisle are fond of suggesting that a win by their opponent will produce economic Armageddon and tank the stock market. And time and again, it never quite turns out that way, regardless of the outcome.

To be sure, markets and investors care about elections – just not as much as many think. Still, it's interesting that stocks have typically done well in the aftermath of midterm elections. In the 12 months after October 31 during each midterm year since 1962, the S&P 500 has jumped by an average of 16.3%, according to U.S. Bancorp Investments data.

Will we see a bounce over the next year, like after past elections? Over the short term, it seems possible, if not likely. Looking further down the road? That's when things could get dicey. 

— Andrew Graham, founder and managing partner of Jackson Square Capital

Wed, Nov 9 2022 2:22 AM EST

GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy: 'It is clear that we are going to take the House back'

U.S. House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) arrives to address supporters at a House Republicans 2022 U.S. midterm election night party in Washington, U.S., November 9, 2022. 

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., told his supporters that he believes Republicans will win control of Congress, even as the fight for the lower chamber grows much tighter than many had foreseen.

McCarthy, who took the stage at his watch party shortly before 2 a.m. ET, began by highlighting a handful of Republican victories in key House races that have already been projected.

"It is clear that we are going to take the House back," McCarthy said.

His brief speech touched on a number of issues that he said a GOP-led House would prioritize, including inflation and crime.

"The American people are ready for a majority that will offer a new direction, that will put America back on track," he said, and "Republicans will deliver it."

Kevin Breuninger

Wed, Nov 9 2022 2:12 AM EST

Wisconsin Democratic Gov. Tony Evers wins reelection, NBC News projects

Gov. Tony Evers speaks at a rally with former U.S. President Barack Obama and Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers before the mid-term elections in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S. October 29, 2022. 

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin won his reelection bid, NBC News projected, in a race that was seen as a bellwether for how Democratic governors in swing states would fare.

Evers defeated businessman Tim Michels, the Republican nominee and a former Senate candidate. Michels conceded the race, telling his supporters, "Unfortunately the math doesn't add up."

Evers will likely reprise his role as the governor of a state with a Republican majority legislature, a split that resulted in bitter battles over voting rights legislation, public school curriculums and a proposed abortion referendum.

During his first term in office, Evers vetoed scores of bills passed by the GOP state House and Senate, and he often referred to himself as a "goalie," blocking the Republicans' agenda from going through.

Michels spent approximately $15 million of his own money on the race.

— Christina Wilkie

Wed, Nov 9 2022 1:38 AM EST

Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer wins reelection, NBC News projects

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer talks to supporters during a campaign stop in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. November 4, 2022. 

Michigan's Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won a second term after defeating Republican challenger Tudor Dixon, who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump, NBC News projected.

Whitmer led by about 6 percentage points with more than 70% of the vote in, according to NBC.

The election marked the first time that women have been at the top of the ticket for both major parties in Michigan. The incumbent was consistently ahead in the polls, though her lead shrank as Election Day approached.

— Emma Kinery

Wed, Nov 9 2022 1:29 AM EST

Biden calls victorious Democrats from the White House to congratulate them

U.S. President Joe Biden smiles during a rally with Democratic nominee for Maryland Governor Wes Moore, U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen and other Maryland Democrats, at Bowie State University in Bowie, Maryland, U.S., November 7, 2022.

President Joe Biden started calling Democrats who had won their races in the House, Senate and state houses to congratulate them.

Among the Democratic officials Biden called were New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, Rep. Andy Kim of New Jersey, Rep. Sharice Davids of Kansas, and Representative-elect Maxwell Frost of Florida.

The White House tweeted a photo of Biden on the phone.

Many of the closest congressional races were still outstanding, but Democrats had already outperformed what many analysts predicted would be a terrible night for the party, in no small part because of Biden's low approval ratings.

— Christina Wilkie

Wed, Nov 9 2022 1:06 AM EST

Early NBC News model estimates Republicans will win 219 House seats and Democrats will win 216, with a 13-seat margin of error

U.S. President Joe Biden laughs at the Democratic National Committee Headquarters ahead of the U.S. mid-term elections, in Washington, October 24, 2022.

A new NBC News model of party control within the U.S. House of Representatives estimates that Republicans will ultimately win 219 seats and Democrats will win 216, with a 13-seat margin of error.

While these numbers are merely estimates, they offer a window into what is turning out to be a better-than-expected night for Democrats in the House. Many in the party and in the Biden White House began the day expecting to lose the razor-thin Democratic House majority by at least 20 seats.

But unexpected wins by Democrats such as incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and challenger Wiley Nickel in North Carolina, according to NBC News projections, changed their calculus.

NBC's new model also suggests there is still a possibility that Democrats could maintain a majority, an outcome that seemed unthinkable just a few hours ago.

President Joe Biden spent the night at the White House, calling victorious Democratic candidates to congratulate them.

Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump hosted an election night party at his Florida resort with a full pool of reporters present.

Trump has endorsed hundreds of Republican candidates running for office on his MAGA platform. But instead of celebrating scores of victories on Tuesday night, the former president gave a very short speech before spending several hours mostly at a table in the reception room, surrounded by friends and aides.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy reserved a party room in Washington, D.C., for what was expected to be a speech celebrating the Republican takeover and his future title of House speaker.

As of 1 a.m. ET on Wednesday, however, McCarthy had not shown up at his own event.

— Christina Wilkie

Wed, Nov 9 2022 12:58 AM EST

Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman defeats GOP rival Dr. Mehmet Oz in pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race, NBC News projects

Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor and U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman arrives to speak during his 2022 U.S. midterm elections night party in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S., November 9, 2022.

Pennsylvania's Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman will defeat Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in a pivotal Senate race that could prove a decisive blow in the battle for control of the upper chamber of Congress, NBC News projected.

Fetterman will succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, moving a Republican-held Senate seat into Democratic hands.

Democrats, who held the slimmest-possible Senate majority heading into Election Day, were banking on flipping the seat in the key swing state, where President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump two years earlier.

The projected verdict deals another blow to Trump, who backed Oz in a hard-fought GOP primary election and campaigned for him in the general election.

Kevin Breuninger

Wed, Nov 9 2022 12:37 AM EST

Democrat Jocelyn Benson wins Michigan secretary of state race, NBC News projects

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson waits to address supporters during a campaign stop at the IBEW Local 58 union hall in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. November 5, 2022.

Michigan's Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson will win reelection against her Trump-backed Republican challenger Kristina Karamo, NBC News projected.

Karamo, who sought to become Michigan's top elections official, has spread claims bolstering the falsehood that former President Donald Trump won the state in the 2020 presidential election.

Kevin Breuninger

Wed, Nov 9 2022 12:33 AM EST

Oz predicts victory, even as NBC says Pennsylvania Senate race is too close to call and Fetterman leads

Mehmet Oz, US Republican Senate candidate for Pennsylvania, speaks during a 'Get Out The Vote' rally at Flexicon Corp. in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, US, on Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022.

Republican Senate hopeful Dr. Mehmet Oz told his supporters that he is still predicting victory over Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in the neck-and-neck race in Pennsylvania.

"When all the ballots are counted, we believe we will win this race," Oz said in a brief speech delivered before midnight Tuesday.

The Keystone State's must-win Senate race, which could determine control of the upper chamber of Congress, is still too close to call, NBC News projected, with 88% of the vote in.

But Fetterman is leading Oz, according to NBC's projection.

Kevin Breuninger

Wed, Nov 9 2022 12:16 AM EST

Michigan approves constitutional amendment to protect abortion, reproductive rights, NBC News projects

Press Assistant of the RFFA (Reproductive Freedom for All) Beth Bowen sits for a portrait before going out to canvass on November 06, 2022 in Dearborn, Michigan.

Michigan voted to approve a constitutional amendment that protects the right to abortion and to reproductive rights more broadly, NBC News projected.

The amendment includes protections for abortion, contraception, prenatal care, postpartum care, miscarriage management, sterilization and infertility. Michigan could regulate abortion for a viable fetus but cannot prohibit abortion if a woman's life, physical or mental health is at stake.

Activists have spent more than $28 million through the political action committee Reproductive Freedom for All to support the amendment, according to campaign filings. Opposition has spent more than $16 million through the PAC Citizens to Support MI Women and Children.

— Jack Stebbins

Wed, Nov 9 2022 12:02 AM EST

California passes constitutional amendment protecting abortion and contraception access, NBC News projects

A billboard reads, 'Welcome to California where abortion is safe and still legal' on July 12, 2022 in Rancho Mirage, California.

Voters in California approved a constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion, NBC News projected.

The amendment prohibits the state from denying or interfering with a woman's freedom to have an abortion or use contraception. While abortion access was not in immediate jeopardy in the liberal state, the amendment protects it if political circumstances change.

A similar constitutional referendum is projected to pass in Vermont.

— Jack Stebbins

Tue, Nov 8 2022 11:49 PM EST

Vermont passes constitutional amendment protecting abortion access, NBC News projects

Political candidate and referendum posters are placed along a main road November 2, 2022 in Shelburne, Vermont. A sign in favor Article 27 would enshrine a woman's reproductive rights in the Vermont state constitution following the US Supreme Court's declaring Roe v. Wade as unconstitutional after 50 years of abortion rights. US midterm elections will be held on November 8, 2022.

Vermont voters will pass a state constitutional amendment protecting abortion access, NBC News projected.

The amendment has 76% support among Vermont voters with 72% of the vote currently in, according to NBC. The amendment guarantees an individual's right to personal reproductive autonomy.

While abortion rights were not in immediate jeopardy in the largely liberal state, the referendum guarantees the right is maintained even if the state's political situation changes in the future.

— Jack Stebbins

Tue, Nov 8 2022 11:41 PM EST

Brad Raffensperger wins Georgia secretary of state race, NBC News projects

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who is also running for re-election on the Republican ticket, holds his first press briefing of Election Day in Atlanta, Georgia, November 8, 2022.

Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger of Georgia, who clashed with former President Donald Trump over the state's election results in 2020, will win his bid for another term, NBC News projected.

Raffensperger came into the national spotlight after the 2020 presidential election, when Trump called him and asked him "to find 11,780 votes" to reverse President Joe Biden's win in Georgia. Raffensperger pushed back on Trump in that call and afterward. That call is now part of a criminal investigation.

Kevin Breuninger

Tue, Nov 8 2022 11:32 PM EST

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul beats Republican Zeldin, NBC News projects

New York Governor Kathy Hochul celebrates at her U.S. midterm election night party after winning re-election in New York, New York, U.S. November 8, 2022. 

Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul defeated Republican U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin in her bid to keep her office, NBC News projected.

Hochul assumed the governor's office in 2021 after former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned. She served as lieutenant governor to Cuomo from 2015 to 2021.

Zeldin currently represents New York's 1st Congressional District in the House. Hochul was leading by about 11 percentage points with more than 70% of the vote in, according to NBC.

— Chelsey Cox

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