The Fed’s monetary policy could take the market considerably lower according to strategic investor Bill Fleckenstein, President Of Fleckenstein Capital. (It’s worth noting that he’s a well known bear.) Following is a synopsis of his main points.
Fleckenstein believes that the central bank behaved recklessly under both Bernanke and Greenspan by substantially lowering interest rates. By creating excess liquidity, they ultimately swapped one bubble (tech stocks) for another (homes), he says.
I don’t think the Fed is in control, they need to step aside and let the chips fall where the chips fall. Greenspan has led everyone to believe there aren't going to be anymore tough times. But that’s not the way capitalism works.
And the housing bubble could be much harder to work through, he adds, because the sector generated the bulk of the economic growth over the past couple years.
Without housing we won't have activity to support other sectors such as the financials and retail (mortgages and home decor), he reasons.
As a result, we could experience one of the worst recessions in recent memory, he concludes.
How do you trade?
When the current bounce ends, I recommend getting short. Sell financials, tech and retail, Fleckenstein says. If you need to be invested in anything, I recommend buying gold.
What do you think? Which bubble will end up being wrose for the economy, tech of housing? Tell us now. Answer the .
Note: Bill Fleckenstein is the author of a new book called "Greenspan's Bubble; The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve."
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Trader disclosure: On Feb.6, 2008, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Macke Owns (INTC), (YHOO), (DIS), (ATVI), Najarian Owns (AIG) Puts; Najarian Owns (AAPL) Calls, (NYX) Calls, (SKS) Calls; Najarian Owns (BIIB), (C), (CSCO), (MS), (MSFT), (YHOO), (AMR), (CTSH); Finerman Owns (GS); Finerman's Firm Owns (AEO), (BR), (DSW), (JCP), (KSS), (MO), (MSFT), (PLCE), (SKS), (SUN), (TSO), (WMT), (YHOO); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (IYR), (IWM), (SPY), (MDY), (SPG); Finerman's Firm Is Short (LEH) And Owns (LEH) Puts; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (FLS) (HD); Finerman's Firm Owns (CROX) And (CROX) Calls, Finerman Owns (CROX); Finerman's Firm Owns Shares Of Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc; Finerman's Firm Owns Shares Of HBOS plc; Finerman's Firm Is Short The Pound; Terranova Owns Crude Oil; Vivendi Owns 20% Of NBC Universal, The Parent Company Of CNBC; Fleckenstein Owns Gold