It's been a tough start to the year with high volatility and last year's gains wiped away. But with the start of Spring and the Good Friday market holiday upon us, will the markets rebound as the leaves return to the trees? Looking back in history, the markets have gone up after the Easter break.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
- 1 month after Good Friday - avg gain of .7% and up 61% of the time
- 3 months after Good Friday - avg gain of 1.5% and up 55% of the time
- 6 months after Good Friday - avg gain of 2.2% and up 61% of the time
The S&P 500
- 1 month after Good Friday - avg gain of .5% and up 59% of the time
- 3 months after Good Friday - avg gain of 2.3% and up 60% of the time
- 6 months after Good Friday - avg gain of 2.3% and up 64% of the time
The NASDAQ Composite
- 1 month after Good Friday - avg gain of .8% and up 62% of the time
- 3 months after Good Friday - avg gain of 4.0% and up 70% of the time
- 6 months after Good Friday - avg gain of 3.5% and up 62% of the time
When the Dow was down for the year going into Easter weekend, the results were a bit more mixed. The Dow remained flat for the next 6 months, the S&P had average gains of roughly .5% three and six months out, and the Nasdaq faired best with average gains of 2.8% and 3.5% for the next 3 and 6 months.
Companies that could use the most "Spring" this year are Bear Stearns , Ambac , Sprint Nextel , and CIT which are all down over 50% YTD.