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Does History Really Repeat Itself?


They say you can learn a lot about the future by studying the past. But are they right?

If you visit us regularly you know that for the past several weeks CNBC has been pointing out the many similarities between the current market and the market during the Depression era.  Pundits questioned whether 2009 was shaping up to be like 1932. (Click here to see the full analysis)

In fact, Fast Money trader Joe Terranova got in on the act. He made a case that this market does not resemble 1932 at all. Instead he said we should look to events from the late ‘80’s as a guide. (Click here to see Terranova's full analysis.)

Well guess what, InfectiousGreed blogger Paul Kedrosky says examining history to determine what comes next is, “more or less bunk.” He writes, “I’m increasingly close to being an outright nihilist when it comes to over-reliance on historical financial data without any truly coherent supporting rationale.”

Instead he says, “We are in a grand experiment with no real history to draw on, and anyone who pretends otherwise is deluded or selling something, or both.”

Intrigued? Us too.

So we invited Kedrosky to join us on Fast Money as our guest.

Find out what else he told the traders. Watch the video now.

> Click here to read Kedrosky’s blog “Infectious Greed”

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Trader disclosure: On Jan 6, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders: Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Macke Owns  (MSFT), (TM), (MOS), (WMT); Najarian Owns (CSCO), (ERTS), (MSFT), (GS), (XLB), (EEM); Najarian Owns Short Calls (MSFT); Najarian Own (NVDA) Long Sread ; Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (EEM), (DNA); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IYR), (IWM), (MDY), (SPY), (USO), (IJR), (BBT), (GNK) with wires