The next 30 days could be a "turning point" for oil prices, a top commodities trader told CNBC Monday, adding that the price of light, sweet crude could soon fall to $85 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate broke a key technical level when it recently closed below $95 a barrel, said Richard Ilczyszyn, senior market strategist at Lind Waldock. The close below that level "opens the window" for another $10 to the downside, he explained. Therefore, he thinks $85 to $95 is the new established range.
To Ilczyszyn, oil prices recently went up too much, too fast. With few developments in the Middle East, a "slightly" stronger U.S. dollar and equities pulling back, the market realized oil prices didn't need to be so high, he said. So he thinks oil will continue to take its $10 to $15 premium off throughout the next 30 to 60 days.
Is Lower Oil Really a Good Thing?
As crude fell to its lowest level in more than four months on Monday, the "Fast Money" traders debated what it means for the economy.
OptionMONSTER.com's Pete Najarian thinks it's good for the economy. Consumers couldn't survive on $4 a gallon for gasoline, he said. With lower gas prices, consumers are able to spend money elsewhere, which might be why consumer discretionary stocks rose on Monday.
Chevron and Exxon performed well, too, despite oil going lower. To Najarian, that says there's a "calm period" coming. Now that oil has broke through the $92 level, he thinks it could fall to the $80s. Over time, he thinks that will be a positive for the market.
Brian Kelly of Kanundrum Capital, however, said lower oil prices doesn't help the economy in the long run. To him, lower oil prices suggests weak demand. China is the largest consumer of oil, so if oil is falling, that means China's economy slowing down. For his part, Kelly doesn't think oil is going down because of less demand. He thinks China isn't slowing down.
One reason for lower oil, Najarian said, might be that there is less rebellions in the Middle East. Kelly agreed that risk is coming off.
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Trader disclosure: On June 20, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Pete Najarian owns (AAPL); Pete Najarian owns (C); Pete Najarian owns (MS); Pete Najarian owns (TCK); Pete Najarian owns (MOS); Pete Najarian owns (RSX); Pete Najarian owns (BEXP); Pete Najarian owns (GE); Pete Najarian owns (CROX); Pete Najarian owns (MS); Weiss Owns (KEY); Weiss Owns (CMA); Weiss Owns (TWM); Weiss Owns (SDS); Weiss Owns (COP); Weiss Owns (JPM); Weiss Owns (UUP); Weiss Owns (DVN); Weiss Owns (HK); Weiss Owns (CMA); Weiss Owns (MRK); Weiss Owns (AKAM); Weiss Owns (ETP); Weiss Owns (MS); Weiss Owns (QCOM); Weiss Owns (VZ); Weiss Owns (MRK); Weiss is Short (X); Weiss is Short (FWLT) ; Weiss is Short (FLR); Weiss is Short (SHAW)
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