After so much negativity, it was hard not to notice that a modest amount of optimism seemed to be creeping back into the market with the Dow and S&P trading higher for a second consecutive day.
”The market didn’t sell Monday’s strength,” muses trader Joe Terranova. “That suggests we may have found a bottom at 1155.”
(The fact that the market held 1155 is significant because 1155 is a key Fibonacci level - the 50% retracement of the entire up-leg from the Oct 4 low of 1068 to the Oct 27 high of 1289.25.)
In addition to the technicals, ”The fundamentals aren’t terrible, either,” adds trader Brian Kelly.
Kelly is referencing new data, which showed consumer confidence bounced back from a 2-1/2 year low in November. Also retailers racked up record sales over the Thanksgiving weekend.
And overseas, Italian bond yields fell from session highs, calming fears about Europe's debt crisis.
How should you position now? What should you be watching?
Although he’s relatively bullish, trader Joe Terranova doesn’t advocate increasing weightings just yet.
Instead he says wait until late week and see how the market reacts to these catalysts:
- PMI data out of Europe,
- Chinese economic data
- US jobs report, scheduled for Friday morning.
Once we get that data and see how the market digests it, ”That’s when we’ll know if Santa Claus is coming to town,” Terranova says.
Trader Patty Edwards is on the same page as Terranova. She’s making a list but she’s also checking it twice – and not buying -- until she has a better sense of these imporant economic data points come out.
And of those 3 catalysts, ”Watch Europe,” counsels Brian Kelly. That matters most.
“One positive headline that suggests the ECB is the buyer of last resort and the S&P could be off to the races,” he speculates.
And if the S&P does rally, Kelly sees every reason for stocks to rally hard with a chase for performance and forced short covering generating tailwinds.
Trader Steve Cortes is on the other side; he thinks the market is range bound and approaching levels of resistance. “Wait for the market to climb then put new shorts on,” he says.
To support his thesis, Cortes points to the action in Apple. “When Apple doesn’t lead the charge – the market tends to have a lot of problems, and Apple is not leading the charge.”
What do you think? We want to know!
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Trader disclosure: On November 29, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders;
JOE TERRANOVA
Long: SBUX, DECK, TRLG, LULU, CAT, CSCO, HES, SU, EMC, IBM, AXP, MUB, LQD
PATTY EDWARDS
Long for Clients: TGT, AAPL, CVX, PM, (Patty also personally owns), CBI
BRIAN KELLY
Fund is long: AAPL, DE, CAT, CLNE, GLNG, IBM, MSFT, PM, SNDK, SYY, BRENT OIL, COPPER, FCX, AUSSIE DOLLAR, CORN FUTURES
Fund is short: Japanese yen, EWO
STEVE CORTES
Long: XLE, S&P 500, Treasuries,
Short: XRT, QQQ, DB
DAN DICKER
Long: RIG
CAMILLA SUTTON
Scotia Capital
Firm makes market in Australian Dollar and Euro
MICHAEL PACHTER
Wedbush Securities
No disclosures
TAVIS MCCOURT
Morgan Keegan
No Disclosures
AMIT DARYANANI
Securities Recommended: Amphenol Corporation. Benchmark Electronics, Inc.. Celestica Inc.. Dell Inc.. EMC Corporation. Emulex Corporation. Flextronics International Ltd.. Hewlett-Packard Company. International Business Machines Corporation. Jabil Circuit, Inc.. Molex Incorporated. NetApp, Inc.. Plexus Corp.. QLogic Corporation. Sanmina-SCI Corporation. Seagate Technology. Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.. TE Connectivity Ltd.. Xyratex Group Limited.
Details / Comments: CNBC Business News
( internal identifier: 19308 )
Disclosures
Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.:
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. in the past 12 months.
Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.:
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. in the past 12 months.
Molex Incorporated:
Royal Bank of Canada, together with its affiliates, beneficially owns 1 percent or more of a class of common equity securities of Molex Incorporated.
Celestica Inc.:
RBC Capital Markets is currently providing Celestica Inc. with non-securities services.
Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.:
RBC Capital Markets is currently providing Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. with non-securities services.
International Business Machines Corporation:
RBC Capital Markets is currently providing International Business Machines Corporation with non-securities services.
Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.:
RBC Capital Markets has provided Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. with investment banking services in the past 12 months.
Dell Inc.:
RBC Capital Markets has provided Dell Inc. with non-investment banking securities-related services in the past 12 months.
Seagate Technology:
RBC Capital Markets has provided Seagate Technology with non-investment banking securities-related services in the past 12 months.
International Business Machines Corporation:
RBC Capital Markets has provided International Business Machines Corporation with non-investment banking securities-related services in the past 12 months.
Dell Inc.:
RBC Capital Markets has provided Dell Inc. with non-securities services in the past 12 months.
Celestica Inc.:
RBC Capital Markets has provided Celestica Inc. with non-securities services in the past 12 months.
Jabil Circuit, Inc.:
RBC Capital Markets has provided Jabil Circuit, Inc. with non-securities services in the past 12 months.
Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.:
RBC Capital Markets has provided Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. with non-securities services in the past 12 months.
CNBC.com with wires.