Rejection of TransCanada’s XL Pipeline on Wednesday won’t likely make a big difference in the short term, one “Fast Money” analyst said.
“XL is a project that we didn’t have in the models until the end of 2014,” said Carl Kirst, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets. “As far as what was in the stock, given I think the dynamics from the end of last year when the State Department had first punted at that point, there was basically $1, maybe $2 at best, of a $7 project in the stock.”
President Obama said that the announcement was “not a judgment on the merits of the pipeline,” adding that the decision was compelled by a Feb. 21 deadline set by Congress that did not allow the State Department enough time for the review process.
Last week, TransCanada CEO Russ Girling sounded bullish on prospects for the XL pipeline on “Fast Money.”
Kirst noted it was a conditional rejection.
“This was not the end of the line for XL. This was, frankly, politics,” he said. “We’re probably going to see TransCanada and the state Nebraska come together in the next, probably, three weeks.”
A final analysis could come in the fall, after which the company would likely reapply for a rerouted pipeline with a final decision in 2013.
“If Keystone never happens, you’re probably looking at, I would say, the stock kind of falling down to about $40, a little under where it is today and having to consolidate there for some time,” Kirst said. “Longer-term, this company’s got a great deal of cash flow.”
One company, which already has a pipeline network from Canada to the United States, could see a boost in light of the decision.
“There’s no doubt about that Enbridge will also get a wind at their back from this,” he said.
TransCanada stock dipped on the news, recovering most of its losses in afternoon trading to close down 0.79 percent at $41.41.
Enbridge closed up 0.78 percent at $36.06.
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Trader disclosure: On Jan. 18, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Terranova is long V; Terranova is long CSCO; Terranova is long TRLG; Terranova is long JNPR; Terranova is long DECK; Terranova is long NFLX; Terranova is long XOM; Terranova is long SBUX; Terranova is long AXP; Terranova is long EMC; Terranova is long MUB; Terranova is long IBM; Terranova is long UNG April $5 puts; Finerman owns AAPL; Finerman owns BAC; Finerman owns JPM; Finerman owns IBM; Finerman owns MSFT; Najarian is long AAPL; Najarian is long GS; Najarian is long LLTC; Najarian is long KBH; Najarian is long CQB; Najarian is long EMC; Najarian is long CREE; Najarian is long FCX;
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