By the Numbers

Groundhog Day Shadows the Stock Market

Groundhog handler Ben Hughes watches Punxsutawney Phil after he did not see his shadow predicting an early spring during the 125th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2011 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania.
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Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil appeared from his burrow Thursday, casting a shadow and predicting six more weeks of winter. Could this furry weather prognosticator also forecast the stock market performance?

In the last 10 years, stocks fell 70 percent of the time six-weeks after Phil made an apperance, with the S&P 500 index  posting an average loss of 1.8 percent. 

Similarly, the Dow fell during those periods — 60 percent of the time — with an average loss of 1.4 percent. 

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