BUDAPEST, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Emerging European currencieswere mostly flat on Tuesday with markets digesting weaker globalgrowth forecasts from the IMF and Czech inflation data which metexpectations.
The Serbian dinar
was 0.1 percent firmer ahead of arate decision by its central bank, with analysts split overwhether the bank would raise its benchmark interest rate
to counter rising inflation.
Of 10 analysts and traders polled by Reuters five said thebank would hold the rate at 10.5 percent, three analysts saw anincrease of 25 basis points and two a 50 basis point rise to 11percent. Last month the bank kept the main rate on hold.
"We expect today's rate decision in Serbia to end at most ina 25bp rate hike to 10.75 percent, though we would not besurprised to see the NBS leave its policy rate on hold,"Unicredit said in a note.
"Our estimate ...is mainly driven by our belief in NBS'sstrict commitment to guaranteeing currency stability at thisstage, as well as making some efforts to bolster its damagedinflation targeting credibility."
The IMF said in its bi-annual report that the globaleconomic slowdown was worsening as it cut its growth forecastsfor the second time since April. It expected growth in theEurope's emerging eastern markets would roughly halve to 2.6percent.
Dealers said that developments on the euro zone's debtcrisis were the main driver of sentiment across the region.Ministers meeting in Luxembourg have dampened any hopes onmarkets of a swift move by Spain to seek more international aid.
"The euro zone ministerial meeting has not brought anythingnew and Europe is in a vicious circle of negotiations," he said.
The Czech crown
was flat after September inflationdata which were fully in line with forecasts, showing annualinflation at 3.4 percent.
Roman Fol, an FX dealer at Raiffeisenbank, said he expectedthe crown would move within a range of 24.85 and 25.00 per euroin quiet trade on Tuesday.
The forint
was bid 0.2 percent lower versus theeuro at 283.78 at 0710 GMT.Poland's zloty
was flat, with markets weighing theprospect of rate cuts after a central banker said he may votefor an interest rate cut next month.
"A consolidation of the zloty in the 4.04-4.08 range remainsthe most likely scenario," Unicredit's Bank Pekao said.
"Short-term bonds are relatively stable despite a series ofcomments from policymakers that do not alter our forecast thatrates will be cut at the November meeting," Pekao added. "Thelonger-end on the yield curve may positively react to thefalling yield of Bunds."
--------------------------MARKET SNAPSHOT--------------------
Currency Latest Previous Local Localclose currency currencychange changetoday in 2012Czech crown24.927 24.929 +0.01% +2.48%Polish zloty4.068 4.066 -0.05% +9.75%Hungarian forint283.78 283.2 -0.2% +10.86%Croatian kuna7.482 7.459 -0.31% +0.45%Romanian leu4.567 4.567 0% -5.39%Serbian dinar114.61 114.71 +0.09% -6.68%
All data taken from Reuters at 0910 CET.
Currency percent change calculated from the daily domestic
close at 1600 GMT.
(Reporting by Krisztina Than; editing by Patrick Graham)
((krisztina.than@thomsonreuters.com)(+36 1 327 4745)(ReutersMessaging: krisztina.than.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
Keywords: MARKETS EASTEUROPE/