Helicopter Janet? Soft data likely mean easy Fed

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Stocks are rallying on the poor September nonfarm payroll report, which came in lower than consensus at 148,000 vs. 180,000 estimates. August was upwardly revised to 193,000 from 169,000.

Why the rise in stocks? It cements the view that the Federal Reserve will be on hold, likely until March. It never ends: October will be clouded by the government shutdown.

Barclays this morning said they do not expect tapering before March, but there are others that are already whispering about June.


It's the biggest day so far for earnings, and the same problem emerges: most beat on earnings, but many miss on revenues. Of 21 large companies I looked at, only three missed on earnings estimates, but 10 (nearly half) missed on revenues.

Take United Technologies The earnings beat was a penny, but top line revenues of $15.46 billion was well shy of $16.18 billion expected. On top of that, they raised the low end of their 2013 earnings per share to $6.10-$6.15 from $6.00-$6.15, but LOWERED their 2013 revenue guidance to $63 billion from $64 billion. They cited weakness in the military aerospace market and the slow pace of recovery in Europe.

Still, there's plenty of strength in commercial aerospace. Lockheed Martin raised 2013 EPS and narrowed their 2013 revenue guidance.

Raising or affirming EPS guidance while shrinking or not changing revenue guidance is a real theme today. Whirlpool raised its 2013 EPS (to $9.90-$10.10 from $9.50-$10.00) but did not change its revenue guidance.

And finally, most retailers are struggling just to meet analyst estimates this quarter. Not TJX, which raised its outlook (to $0.73-$0.74, above consensus of $0.72), and boosted its third quarter comparable sales growth to four percent, from two to three percent.

Even more importantly, management reiterated they would achieve 10-13 percent EPS growth for the next several years. It doesn't get any better than that.

By CNBC's Bob Pisani