Talking Numbers

Why Best Buy may be a bad buy: Strategists

Why Best Buy may be a bad buy: Strategists

In 2012, Best Buy was one of the worst performing stocks in the entire S&P 500. This year, however, Best Buy has wowed investors, returning 246% to those who owned the stock since the start of the year. While the numbers say this is the best holiday season for online retailers yet, does Best Buy's "click-and-mortar" business model mean its stock will continue to perform in the coming year?

Joe Greco, managing director at Meridian Equity Partners, is pessimistic.

"I would not be an investor here and, true to my profession, I would definitely trade the stock," says Greco on CNBC's Street Signs' Talking Numbers segment. "But, you've got to be careful. You've got nearly a 10% short interest in the stock."

(Read: These retailers broke their Christmas delivery promise)

Greco says the stock is sensitive to headline risk and has now at the end of the most important season for the retailer. And, it's because of management's operating choices during the holiday season that Greco is skeptical the company's future prospects.

"If you took note from Thanksgiving until now, most of their inventories in store were running really low, if not sold out, at almost all times," says Greco. "Their obviously angling towards keeping inventories low and selling things online which now they're competing against the Amazons and eBays. It's not necessarily going to work out in the long run. They painted themselves in a corner. It's going to be interesting to see how they juggle that fundamentally quarter-to-quarter."

Katie Stockton, Chief Technical Strategist at BTIG, is also not so sure Best Buy is the best buy based on the stock's technicals.

"We've seen Best Buy lose momentum as most stocks have gained momentum since about November," say Stockton. "So, despite the impressive gains for the year, the stock is actually deteriorating on its chart."

(See: CNBC's Retail coverage)

For Stockton, $39.75 per share is an important level for Best Buy's stock. If it breaks below that, she believes its next support is $36.25. "Of course, that would be pretty significant downside risk from current levels," says Stockton.

"Obviously, the long-term trend is still very higher, but I think short-term, you just want to stay on the sidelines here."

To see the rest of the analysis on Best Buy by Greco and Stockton, watch the video above.

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