Market Insider

Energy costs a potential threat to bull market


Whether the U.S. stock market's record-breaking rise continues could come down to the price of oil.

Wall Street on Friday posted its fourth weekly gain, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the closing at records, supported by reassurances from the Federal Reserve that interest rates would remain low as the economy continues to recover.

Read MoreDow ends at record after longest winning run this year

Expectations that the economy is on the mend also play into the stock market's advance, and some strategists say rising energy costs could at some point threaten the economy and the price of equities.

"If crude goes to $140 a barrel, and we've seen that before, it immediately subtracts a half a percentage point of GDP growth, all on its own," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

Erbil Refinery in Iraq, where attacks and unrest have caused a fuel crisis in Iraq.
Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

"Oil is definitely tied into what is going on in the Middle East right now, as long as this craziness is going on over there, oil volatility will be high. What is the price before it starts to have a potentially negative impact on the economy? I'm not sure, maybe $120," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.

Crude on Friday marked a second weekly gain, with futures pricing a barrel of crude at $107.26, its highest close in nearly nine months, as President Barack Obama dispatched U.S. military advisors to help the Iraqi army fight Sunni insurgents, who seized control of cities north of Baghdad and are fighting for control of the Baji oil refinery, the largest in Iraq.

Read MoreUS oil ends at highest since September

"Heaven forbid these guys get close to where oil is produced in the south of Iraq, that could be what tips the apple cart here," said Hogan of the fighting in the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, after Saudi Arabia.

"We've been overvalued on a trailing earnings basis for awhile, because investors are looking at a very low interest rate environment, and thinking they can afford to bid up risky assets. We could stay this way awhile, but eventually things unwind, and this too will unwind, it's just a matter of when," said Paul Nolte, a senior vice president and portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management.

Pain at the pump

Data on housing and first-quarter GDP will be the most closely watched economic reports scheduled for release in days ahead, the last full week of June.


Earnings: Micron Technology, Sonic, Carnival

8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed national activity index

9:45 a.m.: Markit flash PMI

10 a.m.: Existing home sales


Earnings: Walgreen, Apogee Enterprises

9 a.m.: Case-Shiller home prices

9 a.m.: FHFA home prices

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence index

10 a.m.: New home sales

10 a.m. Richmond Fed survey


Earnings: General Mills, Monsanto, Apollo Educations Group, Barnes & Noble, Bed Bath & Beyond, Herman Miller

8:30 a.m.: GDP revision

8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders


Earnings: Accenture, ConAgra Foods, Lennar, McCormick & Company, Winnebago Industries, Nike, Shaw Communications, Steelcase, Worthington Industries

8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims


Earnings: Commercial Metals, KB Home

8:30 a.m.: Personal income

8:30 a.m.: Consumer spending

9:55 a.m. Consumer sentiment index

—By CNBC's Kate Gibson