The Dow Jones Industrial Average sliced through 17k like a hot knife in butter after the better-than-expected June jobs report. But not so fast! The report isn't all that it is cracked up to be and I don't think it will cause the Federal Reserve to begin to tighten any sooner.
An article in the Washington Post sums it up: "More Americans are Stuck in Part-Time Work."
In fact, 95 percent of the 288,000 jobs created last month were "new part-time" jobs. In addition, the number of workers who were shifted into "part time" status was an astonishing 840K, nearly triple the number of new jobs added.
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So was the push up and through 17K just an overreaction to what looked like a strong headline number? I think yes, but with rates so low and global central banks continuing to throw money at their respective economies, it would've been hard for traders to NOT react that way. In fact, it is hard to argue that this report — which should have caused some concern — will cause the Fed to do anything other than "stay the course."
After a weekend where so many analysts/strategists had an opportunity to digest the data, many are now all of a sudden saying "We might be a bit ahead of ourselves" and are calling for a pullback.
Nobel Prize economist Joseph Stiglitz said it very clear on CNBC Monday morning: He is "concerned" … he is "very uncomfortable with current stock prices" and indices trading at new highs does not mean a strong economic recovery in the U.S.
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"The reason the stock market is high, in part, is that interest rates are low, wages are low and the emerging markets are still growing much faster than the U.S. economy, let alone Europe," Stiglitz said.
He points out that so many U.S.-listed companies (multinationals) are earning an "increasingly large chunk" of their profits from the emerging markets.
"These very strong stock-market prices are, in a sense, a symptom of the weak economy — not a symptom that we are about to have a strong recovery to our real economy," he said.
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I have been more cautious of late and this report only forces me to remain so. I don't think this jobs report will be what spurs the market higher. In fact, I think it will be what makes the market move a bit lower after last week's run-up.
Although I do believe that the second half of the year will prove to be better, it will be because of improving broader macro data along with earnings and global outlook.
My sense is that we will see the S&P test 2000 and then back off and churn through July and August. A possible pullback of 3 percent to 5 percent would take us to the 1900 range, a level that is not out of line but one that falls short of the expected larger correction — a correction that cannot happen in the current stimulative environment.
Traders will be focusing on earnings for the next three weeks. The NFP report is nothing but a distant memory and will have no real effect on trader mentality now.
Commentary by Kenny Polcari, director of NYSE floor operations at O'Neil Securities. He is also a CNBC contributor, often appearing on "Power Lunch." Follow Kenny on Twitter @kennypolcari and visit him at kennypolcari.com.
Disclosure: The market commentary is the opinion of the author and is based on decades of industry and market experience; however no guarantee is made or implied with respect to these opinions. This commentary is not nor is it intended to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment. The comments noted herein should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial product, or an official statement or endorsement of O'Neil Securities or its affiliates.