With India's consumer price inflation easing to a record low, what are the odds of the central bank pulling the rate-cut trigger when it meets on Tuesday?
Economists say the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly hold fire as the weak monsoon and uncertainty around the outlook for oil prices due to geopolitical tensions threaten a revival of price pressures.
"The RBI is likely to pause at Tuesday's policy review. We believe it is early to factor in rate cuts given risks to the inflation outlook," Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Group Research wrote in a note.
"Also notable is the tail risk from an earlier-than-expected U.S. Federal Reserve's push to hike rates, which can revive uncertainty. In light of these factors, we expect the RBI to keep rates on hold in August and rest of the year," she added.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, who raised rates three times since taking charge last September, held benchmark interest rates at 8 percent at the June policy meeting. However, he gave off a dovish tone in June.