Talking Numbers

Steel stocks a steal of a deal?

Steel stocks a steal of a deal?

Could U.S. Steel be a steal of a deal for your portfolio?

America's largest steelmaker got a boost on Monday after the stock was upgraded to a "buy" by Deutsche Bank. The company recently gave strong guidance and shares are up a whopping 22 percent over the last five trading sessions.

However, Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., doesn't think investors should rush to buy more shares just yet based on the stock's technicals.

"For new longs, we're suggesting clients to wait for some consolidation to buy it," Waldsaid. "But the clients that we got in earlier in the year, we're telling them to stick with it. We see more upside here."

Wald notes U.S. Steel was put on his company's "buy" list earlier this year. "We like that it was pulling back to a rising 200-day moving average," he said.

The breakout above resistance at $31 per share on Wednesday was a sign of meaningful strength in the stock. "There's more upside here," he said. "The stock can get to $40. We would be looking to sell it up there."

But in the near term, U.S. Steel is due for some consolidation, Wald said. "We would be looking to buy it on a pullback."

David Seaburg, head of sales trading at Cowen and Company, agrees with Wald that there will be a pullback in U.S. Steel's stock price. "The stock had a big move up after earnings," he said, noting U.S. Steel had a sizeable short interest. "It's at high levels. I think you see about a 10 percent pullback and then you get back involved."

Seaburg said that his company also upgraded U.S. Steel back in December. "The long-term story here is pretty much intact," he said. "They've got a massive, massive program in place to cut costs. They've saved about $465 million year-to-date."

There has already been consolidation, but it's been in the industry itself. "Some of the foreign layers have sold some of their assets to some of the domestic guys," Seaburgsaid. "And the macro environment for these names is getting stronger. I think the economy picks up and I think the pricings stability here is going to help them long term."

Cowen and Company has a U.S. Steel is a $42 price target, $2 higher than Deutsche Bank's recent upgrade. But Seaburg believes share prices will fall first before moving up again. "You probably see a little bit of a pullback here," he said. "You buy it on a dip – down 5 – 10 percent – and look for a long-term run higher."

To see the full discussion on U.S. Steel, with Wald on the technical and Seaburg on the fundamentals, watch the above video.

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