Wars and Military Conflicts

No solution to Ukraine in sight: Pros

Humanitarian convoy was a cover: Expert
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Humanitarian convoy was a cover: Expert

Though the threat of an escalation of tensions in Ukraine appeared to diminish on Monday, it seems unlikely the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will end any time soon, observers told CNBC.

Russia said all issues related to its humanitarian convoy to Ukraine had been resolved but said no progress has been made toward a cease-fire or political solution to the fighting in the east of the country after talks between Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine on Sunday.

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However, the region remained unsettled as Ukraine accused pro-Russian rebels on Monday of hitting a refugee convoy of buses with rocket fire near the eastern city of Luhansk, but the separatists denied responsibility.

To Thomas Pickering, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 1989 to 1992, a political settlement will eventually end the crisis. The problem has been that both Russia and Ukraine are "deeply dug in with widely opposed positions," he said on "Squawk on the Street."

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko need to come to the bargaining table with a resolution they can both agree upon, he said. So far, though, both leaders have held out in hopes of appearing strong to their people.

"Putin would like that political settlement to give him something he can call a victory cause it's important to his position in the eyes of the Russian people that he continue to turn in the kind of nationalist exploits that he's been pushing for now six or eight months in Ukraine," Pickering said.

Russia-Ukraine resolutions
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Russia-Ukraine resolutions

David F. Gordon, head of research and director of macro analysis at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based political risk analysis firm, agreed that "Putin is not going to walk away from this that easily."

By extending the crisis, Putin is putting a greater value on short-term benefits instead of the long-term health of Russia, Pickering said. Along the way, Putin has lost trust not only with Ukraine and West, but with the Russian people, too, he said.

"Mr. Putin, in fact, has torn up, shredded any credibility he has and he's not likely to get it back very quickly," Pickering said.

From the Ukrainian crisis to the Gaza conflict and ongoing unrest in Iraq, geopolitical tensions are mounting. It's unlikely any of these crises will move markets, though, unless it somehow begins to effect energy prices, Gordon said.

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"I just don't see the instrument by which they impact each other. Right now, these are all contained," Gordon said. "I think the only thing that could lead to them coming together would be something happening that really put oil supplies at risk and I think that's increasingly unlikely to take place."

—By CNBC's Drew Sandholm. Reuters contributed to this report.