David Rosenberg, chief economist and market strategist at Gluskin Sheff, famously (and for some, infamously) turned from a long-term bear to bull in 2012. He's still optimistic about the U.S. economy and American equities. But now, Rosenberg admits to becoming somewhat discouraged by data he's seen—and perhaps a bit more skeptical about the future.
"I have to say that for a former bear-turned-bull who tried for the past two years to see the world from a cup-half-full lens, the last few weeks have been more than just a bit frustrating," Rosenberg wrote in a Monday note. While he's not changing his views just yet, Rosenberg said he has "no intention of sitting on a stale view," and compared his reassessment to a ratings agency putting "a doubtful debtor on 'credit watch.'"
On Tuesday's "Futures Now," he made it clear that he was none too enthusiastic about the pace of economic growth.
"I'm reconsidering in the sense that I don't think we're going to see a significant rebound—call it something better than 3 percent for the second half of the year," Rosenbeg said. "There was a point at which I thought that was achievable, especially because of the job gains we've seen. ... But what's happening is that the savings rate in the household sector is going up. ... The spending numbers are lagging well behind whatever we're seeing in unemployment and income, and that's caused me to shave back what I think was an above-consensus view for the second half of the year," he said.
But even though he grants that a correction could be imminent, Rosenberg (who, by the way, has no relation to the writer) remains constructive on U.S. stocks.
"If you're going to turn bearish on equities outright, you've got to have a view that the Fed is going to drain liquidity outright, flatten the yield curve and that recession is around the corner," he said. "Because outside of that—you might get corrections along the way ... but as long as the Fed is keeping the system flush with liquidity and we don't slip into recession, the path of least resistance is going to be up for the markets."