Net Net: Promoting innovation and managing change
Net Net: Promoting innovation and managing change

Fortress: Brazil is 'most amazing trading opportunity' this year

Aerial view of Christ the Redeemer statue, in Rio de Janeiro, June 26, 2014.
Yasuyoshi Chiba | AFP | Getty Images

Brazil may be the best place to put your money in 2014. At least, according to one of the world's largest hedge fund firms.

"Brazil, with this election in the next couple of weeks, has given rise to the most amazing trading opportunity so far this year," said $63 billion Fortress Investment Group executive Gareth Henry at the Alpha Hedge West conference in San Francisco on Monday.

"You can look at the equity market, the (Brazilian currency) real and the interest rates. All have been fantastic trades so far this year and we think that will continue post the election."

Henry's remarks echoed comments by Fortress executive Mike Novogratz earlier in May.

"The bet is simple. Between now and the election, the probability of (Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff) winning is going to go a lot lower than it is today. I actually think she loses the election," Novogratz said then of a potential change in leadership. "You'll see a major rally in Brazilian assets."

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Henry also cited Japan and Scotland as good investments this year.

"Japan was one of the biggest and best trades last year. We think that that will continue this year as Abenomics gets stronger and stronger," he said. Abenomics refers to the government's economic stimulus programs under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

On Scotland, he said the turmoil over the recent failed independence vote created good trading opportunities. "Initially it was a nonevent and then there was a huge amount of uncertainty," Henry said.

"Over the next 12 months or so, we should definitely be focused on what's going on globally when it comes to geopolitics and political change," Henry said.

End of 'costly' hedge fund trend?

So far, the bets haven't paid off for the flagship Fortress Macro Fund. It is down an estimated 5.78 percent through August net of fees, according to a regulatory filing.

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