Mad Money

Don't freak out! Here are the facts on oil

Cramer on oil: Here's the facts
Cramer on oil: Here's the facts

Enough already! Jim Cramer is hearing opinions flying all over the place on the hazards of low oil prices. So here are the facts—not opinion, not speculation—just good, hard facts.

Some 16 states benefit from high oil prices, of which six really rely on oil for job growth. Approximately 10 percent of the U.S. lives in those states. That means that even if every one of those people in these states were to get hurt by oil, there are still 290 million Americans who will benefit.

Just 1 percent of employment growth in the past four years has come from oil jobs, 2 percent if you include oil-related jobs.

"Those two numbers, 290 million and 2 percent, tell you that the vast, and I mean vast, majority of Americans see a huge benefit from this decline in crude. It's basically the equivalent of a gigantic tax cut," said the "Mad Money" host.

Yves Herman | Reuters

Another fact is that 10 percent of stocks in the are hurt directly by the decline in oil. That is 12 percent with oil-related stocks included.

No, this doesn't mean that 88 percent of the S&P does better with low oil. But Cramer thinks it does mean there is some serious work to be done for the vast majority of companies to revise earnings estimates up, not down.

And here's a fun fact to whip out at the next party: the reason why oil is historically a volatile commodity is because it doesn't react very well to sudden changes in supply and demand.

However, here is Cramer's key conclusion—none of these facts presented suggest that the stock market should take a nosedive just because there is a decline in crude.

Before black gold collapsed, oil companies were swimming in their cash flows. Only about 20 percent of bond issuers were really stretched. Even if that 20 percent defaulted, it doesn't mean the bonds go to zero or that the Texas banking sector goes belly up.

This is for three reasons; first, there are plenty of large oil companies licking their chops to take over the assets of cheap companies that fail. Second, only three banks are Texas-related. Third, down cycles in oil tend to be self-correcting in 18 months. So, no one knows how long it will stay at these levels.

These facts put together could signal positive repercussions. The U.S. would gain about 0.4 percent GDP growth.

Historically, there have only been a few times that oil shocks coincided with low stock prices. That happened when there was a demand problem. Though there are demand issues in Europe, it's the opposite in the U.S. Oversupply is the issue.

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"So let's sum it up. The velocity of this move is frightening, but directionally, it's an overall positive," Cramer said.

In his opinion, this isn't a time to run for the hills. If oil were going up, then he would be telling you to sell. Instead, this is a time to buy, buy buy as oil gets lower and lower.

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