How many watches will Apple sell? Depends who you ask

Apple CEO Tim Cook announces the Apple Watch during an Apple special event at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts on March 9, 2015, in San Francisco
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Apple CEO Tim Cook announces the Apple Watch during an Apple special event at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts on March 9, 2015, in San Francisco

How many watches will Apple sell this year? Of course, no one knows exactly, but there's plenty of guesses from the analyst community. Funny thing is, no one is even close to agreeing on what the actual number will be. Not even close.

Take a look:

How many watches will Apple sell?

(CY 2015)

Global Equities Research: 40-45M

Susquehanna: 20-25M

Macquarie: 20.0M

Evercore: 18.0M

Baird: 16.9M

Stifel: 11.8M

S&P Capital IQ; 10-15M

I realize this is an imprecise business, forecasting demand for a product that is not out yet. And I know it took a couple years for the iPhone and iPad to really take off, so even initial estimates could be wildly off from the full ramp-up.

But still. One analyst has an estimate of 40 to 45 million units, another has 10 to 15 million? For the same time period? Really? A difference of a factor of four? Not surprisingly, the median seems to be right in the middle, somewhere around 20 million.

OK, enough. You get my point. No one has a clue.

  • Bob Pisani

    A CNBC reporter since 1990, Bob Pisani covers Wall Street from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

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