Apple bears may be missing one big thing

Published Tue, May 26 201511:13 AM EDT

The Apple bears that have kept the stock trapped in a sideways range since February may be missing one big thing: There is likely a new iPhone coming this year. Bearish investors and analysts alike keep worrying about the tough sales comparisons for the iPhone 6 coming in the back half of this year. But analyst after analyst, the latest from Cowen on Tuesday, expect a new version of the smart phone to be unveiled this fall. And this particular analyst also believes a new Apple Watch could be coming as early as this year as well. We "continue to believe AAPL will launch multiple new variants of iPhone into year-end C2015, including the 6S/6S+ in-line with historical timing (i.e., September, not August) and a 6C (closer to year-end)," wrote Cowen's Timothy Arcuri in a note to clients. "We continue to expect a Watch v2.0 (again closer to year-end and likely including captive connectivity to eliminate the tethering required for v1.0) and a 13-inch iPad in the November time frame when iPad normally refreshes." A new iPhone would assuage concerns about sales growth for the device slowing as soon as next month when compared to the massive upgrade cycle of 2014. But Cowen believes that concern may be overblown. "We are raising estimates and our target on our latest field work suggesting a far less pronounced 'shoulder' period for this iPhone cycle as 6/6+ units remain very strong. We now see 50 (million) units for June likely w/early read suggesting a similar number in Sept(ember)," stated the Cowen note. The firm raised its 12-month price target on the stock to $140 from $135. The new forecast represents a 5.6 percent gain from Friday's close. Read More 9 stocks and 1 ETF ready to sizzle this summer Carl Icahn issued a letter to Apple CEO Tim Cook which contained a forecast that Apple is worth $240, in part based on the company's increasing its market share with newer versions of the iPhone ahead. Icahn wrote last week: "With a new iPhone expected in September 2016, Apple stands to benefit as iPhone continues to take premium market share (switchers from competitors), as the middle class continues to grow in emerging markets, and as the modest level of upgrades (only 20 percent to date) indicates pulling demand forward from FY 2016 to FY 2015 may not be as severe as some have highlighted. Along with a more dramatic push into the TV market, increasing traction with Apple Watch, and the introduction of a larger screen iPad, we have confidence in our forecast for FY 2016." Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty said last week the coming new iPhone cycle will be another blockbuster, based on her survey of consumers showing "strong demand from existing iPhone users, with nearly half of the installed base planning to upgrade in FY16." Once the bears realize an even better iPhone is on the way and consumers here and in China are ready to upgrade, the stock may finally break out.

Steve Jobs held up the new iPhone during his keynote address at MacWorld Conference & Expo in San Francisco on Jan. 9, 2007.

Paul Sakuma | AP

The Apple bears that have kept the stock trapped in a sideways range since February may be missing one big thing: There is likely a new iPhone coming this year.

Bearish investors and analysts alike keep worrying about the tough sales comparisons for the iPhone 6 coming in the back half of this year.

But analyst after analyst, the latest from Cowen on Tuesday, expect a new version of the smart phone to be unveiled this fall. And this particular analyst also believes a new Apple Watch could be coming as early as this year as well.