Right on bull, Birinyi sees 6% gain from here

Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates
Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Laszlo Birinyi has been skewering bearish trader peers, old Wall Street maxims and most of all, the media, for the nearly 30 years the strategist has published his monthly newsletter on the market.

And for way more times than not, the legendary trader was right.

This contrarian bent from Birinyi, who famously established the equity desk at Salomon Brothers in the late 1970s, is out in full force this month where he takes swipes at Dow Theorists, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and Alan Greenspan as part of his recommendation that this six-year bull market has further to run.

Birinyi, in his firm's "Reminiscences'' newsletter for June, sees the S&P 500 rising 6 percent to 2,250 by the end of the year.

"Yes we know the bull market is old, yes we know that valuations are high and many analysts bring up 2000 or 2007. There are, however, significant differences, one being that we now know what happened then. Assume you are a skier and at a particularly difficult point in the hill you wipe out. The next time you get to the same point you are more likely to slow down and proceed with caution. Perhaps this is why so many investors have missed this rally."

The main data point behind his call is formed by looking at the last 12 months of bull markets and how the S&P 500 performs. The market was up from 5 percent to 30 percent in the last year of bull markets going back to 1962.

So he argues the S&P 500's stalled trading of the last few months is not the end of the run because bull markets don't simply peter out:

"Bull markets expire when investors are convinced the party will continue, not when they are looking for the exit. Even then timing is critical."

And, of course, Birinyi goes on in the newsletter to list the latest bearish offenders, proving to him that when a rally is hated by institutions that hold market influence, it has further to go.

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Many times this year, investors have sounded the alarm about the inability of the Dow Jones transportation average to confirm the new high in the Dow Jones industrial average. The so-called Dow Theory assumes that if the companies that power the infrastructure of the economy don't confirm the recovery, then it's not for real.

But Birinyi found five Dow Theory sell signals in the 1990s that were false alarms.

A Wall Street Journal warning about high valuations and a CNBC.com story sounding the market correction bell get the Birinyi treatment in the June note. As do recent bearish equity market comments from Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen and former Chairman Greenspan.

The strategist also states that he's not recommending clients buy technology stocks because it's far and away the most-liked sector among investment banks.

Stocks he does recommend to growth-oriented clients are Dollar Tree, Nike and Disney.

And for those with a conservative strategy, Birinyi says they should buy 3M, Johnson & Johnson, Lowe's and Wells Fargo.

Who knows if Birinyi is right once again, but we'd bet this is one article that won't be lampooned in his next letter ... maybe.