U.S.-based investors have so far remained relatively calm in face of Greek financial and political turmoil. But one hedge fund manager wonders if the distress could be a signal of something akin to the 2008 financial crisis.
"One of the many questions that remain is whether this is a 'Lehman' moment or not," Maria Vassalou, portfolio manager of the Perella Weinberg Partners Global Macro fund, wrote in a recent note. "It might be, but I think nobody can answer this question with great certainty at this point. It will have to be seen."
Vassalou added that Europe will be changed regardless of what happens in Greece.
"Independently of the outcome of the referendum, the dynamics of the euro zone are bound to change going forward, leading to more uncertainty in the region," she wrote. "The increased uncertainty is likely to prevent inflation from returning to its target rate in the near future and economic growth will face headwinds."
The PWP Global Macro fund is down 1.37 percent net of fees this year through May, according to performance information obtained by CNBC.com. The fund, launched in late 2013, gained 17.22 percent last year. It manages approximately $461 million.
Vassalou also noted that global markets "will see some degree of spillover effects" depending on the severity of the short-term developments in Greece.
She notes that left-wing politicians elsewhere in Europe, especially Spain and Portugal, will get a boost if European creditors bend to Greek demands.
"I think the gamble they are likely to take is a tough stance on Greece in order to halt the 'austerity revolt' from the other weak links of the euro zone," Vassalou wrote.
A spokesman for Perella Weinberg, which runs approximately $10.6 billion in its New York-based asset management business, declined further comment.