Mad Money

Cramer: Are we headed for worldwide recession?

Cramer reviews 3 necessary conditions for economic upheaval
Cramer reviews 3 necessary conditions for economic upheaval

If Jim Cramer didn't know any better when he looked at the commodities market these past few days, he would think that Greece was bringing the world into a recession.

With copper in total breakdown mode and Alcoa plummeting, Cramer is concerned. And while the CNBC "Mad Money" host does like Alcoa for the long term because it's transforming itself out of just being an aluminum company, he expects that investors will not hear great things about aluminum on Wednesday when Alcoa reports quarterly earnings.

Cramer is also concerned about the vicious collapse in oil, which has been in total freefall. Just take one look at the disturbing action behind Freeport-McMoRan, an oil and copper company that is down 27 percent for the year.

And what about China? Cramer doesn't know where this market would be if it weren't for the communists trying to stabilize the market. In his opinion, it resembles the U.S. market in 2000 when the Nasdaq was plummeting.

So, if Greece only has 11 million people and a minuscule gross domestic product, does any of this bearish action make sense?

I had believed that we could handle a rate hike, but that was because I felt the curtain would have fallen on the Greek tragedy by now. It hasn't
Jim Cramer
Investors observe the stock market at a stock exchange hall in Fuyang, China, June 26, 2015.
ChinaFotoPress | Getty Images

No, it doesn't.

Well, not unless three things occur:

  • First, if the Greek deal is delayed even further, then the euro will go lower and the dollar will get stronger, which ultimately hurts U.S. exports.
  • Second, if China collapses from the weight of its stock market and trillions in bad loans.
  • And third, if the Fed continues to talk about raising rates, even though employment isn't as strong as most thought and industrial production is still not great.

The IMF made the extraordinary move of warning the Fed a second time Tuesday not to raise rates too soon. The IMF is in the thick of things. The "Mad Money" host thinks they should be taken seriously—very seriously.

But could these three things come true and really lead the world into a recession? Cramer gave his take on each speculation.

First, he anticipates that there will be an end game in Europe, soon. That means the dollar will weaken, which is good news.

Second, he doesn't think China will collapse. However, he does expect to see a further slowdown in growth.

But it's the third topic, the Fed, that worries him the most. In Cramer's opinion, the Fed seems determined to raise rates, no matter what happens.

"I had believed that we could handle a rate hike, but that was because I felt the curtain would have fallen on the Greek tragedy by now. It hasn't," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

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So, Cramer will have his eyes open to watch for signs of the situation becoming worse. He will be keep tabs on Freeport-McMoRan, which will show the dollar's strength if it continues to fall. He will follow the Chinese market and the FXE for strength of the euro.

Most importantly, Cramer warned that every time someone from the Fed speaks hawkishly, the stock market will get hammered. Cramer said to get used to it—the recession chatter will continue as long as the Europe nonsense continues, China slows down and the Fed can't keep its mouth shut.

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