The Federal Reserve will likely not raise rates later this year, a top economist told CNBC. And if the commodities market is any indication, it could be a long time before the central bank acts.
"I was always in the view that the Fed was going to be extraordinarily patient, and I still think they will be, but they don't have the smoking gun on runaway growth," David Rosenberg, chief economist for Gluskin Sheff said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now."
According to Rosenberg, a once noted bear who recently turned bullish, the real tell on when the Fed might hike rates will come in the form of rising commodity prices, not a traditional measure like wage inflation.
"Commodity prices are the inflationary impulse that usually picks up first," said Rosenberg. And in his eyes, "it's very rare to have the Fed start to raise rates with the CRB index making new lows." That index, which averages commodity futures prices, is trading near 52-week lows.