Shares of Caterpillar fell to a five-year low Thursday, after the company announced massive layoffs and slashed revenue guidance. That stock alone shaved nearly 30 points off of the Dow as of Thursday afternoon.
Read More Caterpillar to cut up to 10K jobs; lowers guidance
But in considering the likely next move for the Dow Jones industrial average, Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald is growing cautious about a different component: American Express.
The credit card giant's shares have already fallen 20 percent this year, and Wald says the stock is now showing signs of a "fresh breakdown amid a broken trend."
"After several months of moving sideways, a break of support at $76 support indicates that the stock's downtrend is resuming," Wald wrote to CNBC. "We see downside to $69."
That would represent a further decline of 8 percent. And if American Express shares were to drop by that amount, it would shave 38 points off of the Dow.
Read More Caterpillar dive may push these stocks into ditch
But it's not just American Express that appears vulnerable. Looking at the Dow more generally, the technician believes the recent market weakness is likely to continue.
"Stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average continue to break down one by one, and many of these stocks should remain under pressure," Wald wrote to CNBC.
When it comes to the index itself, "we believe this expanding list of breakdowns could lead to a test of 15,650 support in the coming weeks."
