WHEN: Today, Thursday, October 1st
WHERE: CNBC's "Squawk Alley"
Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim and CNBC's Sara Eisen on CNBC's "Squawk Alley" (M-F, 11AM-12PM ET) today. Following is a link to the interview on CNBC.com: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000427939.
All references must be sourced to CNBC.
KIM ON EMERGING MARKETS OUTLOOK
You know, there's a lot of headwinds. I mean, there's no question that growth is going to be slower for emerging markets. You know, a big part of it is the fact that commodity prices are down and they continue to be down. And a lot of that has to do with the slowing growth rate in China. Also, there's a lot of anticipation about eventually the Fed fund rate will be raised and interest rates will go up overall and it will be harder for emerging markets to get access to capital.
KIM ON FED RATE HIKE
If you look at how these things work, at the g20 finance minister's meeting, Stan Fischer said you have to remember we're going from absurdly low rates to incredibly low rates. But that's not the reality for emerging markets. What happens is that temperaments change, people move quickly, and we think there could be serious negative effects for all the emerging markets.
KIM ON OIL AND GAS DROP
Any of the oil and gas producers are already in a terrible situation. I mean, it looks like to us that the price will be down for a long time. And when and if Iran comes on line, we expect that the price of oil and gas will go down another $10 a barrel. So this is really a serious issue for those oil and gas exporters.
KIM ON CHINA
When you change your growth model from investments and exports to one that's more focused on consumption and services, that's a huge shift. And so when you shift so dramatically something as fundamental as your growth model you're going to see these ups and downs. We're not at all surprised that growth is now at 7%. What's important for the Chinese is this is the kind of growth that is more sustainable. That sort of in many ways more under their control and of a higher quality that they think they can sustain for the long run. They're on this path. They've maintained it. They've continued to make reforms.
KIM ON REFUGEE CRISIS
On the one hand, I think there's a lot of very interesting discussion about shouldn't we be open to refugees. Economically, for countries, advanced economies that have a quickly expanding elderly population, that have a shrinking work force, that have a very low birth rate, bringing in refugees –
Sara Eisen: In the long run
Kim: In the long run – well, even in the medium and short run. You know, Turkey, of the new businesses started in Turkey, 26% last year were started by Syrians. The areas where Syrians have settle are growing faster than the areas where Syrians have not settled. So there can be even short term economic benefits.
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