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This indicator suggests a huge market rally

The S&P 500 broke a five-day winning streak Tuesday morning as major U.S. stock indexes opened slightly lower. However, one technician says stocks are heading into a relief rally in the fourth quarter, based on data from one market indicator.

Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, said recent market sentiment has dropped drastically compared to early 2015. However, the tides look like they're about to turn.

"The market overshot to the downside here in its summer sell-off," Wald said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "Now that consensus on the market has kind of come around to the more pessimistic view, we think we're in a position where we swing the other way."

According to Oppenheimer's composite market sentiment measures, which use information from Investors Intelligence, Consensus Inc., Market Vane and the American Association of Individual Investors, 79 percent of the market was bullish in March. More recently, that positive sentiment has fallen to 31 percent, one of the lowest readings in several years, Wald said.


"Now that the market has stabilized, we've tested the low from August, we think we're in the position where we snap back the other way," Wald said. "We see a lot of contrarian firepower here."

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Wald said he sees the S&P 500 going back to its 200-day moving average of about 2,060, a 4 percent gain from where it closed Monday.

However, Neil Azous of Rareview Macro is less optimistic.

"As much as I think a chart is great ... I see no chart that says to me that this is a bounce that will keep going up here," Azous said in a phone interview Tuesday.

Azous said without improvement in credit spreads and corporate financing, stocks could see more downside in the fourth quarter. Because of a corporate financing gap, companies are having trouble issuing credit to refinance balance sheets, buy back stock and complete M&A transactions, he said.

"Until we see credit markets [improve], it's very difficult to think that the stock market bounce is any more than that," Azous said.

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Brian Sullivan is co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F,1PM-3PM ET), one of the network's longest running programs, as well as the host of the daily investing program "Trading Nation." He is also a frequent guest on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and other NBC properties.

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