Stocks had been spooking bonds all summer. Now it's the bond market's turn.
Even before Friday's jobs report made it much more likely the Fed could raise rates in December, stock traders have been keeping an eye on the bond market for clues on the Fed's first rate hike. Yields on the 2-year note, the most policy-sensitive, rose to the highest level in more than five years Friday, after the October payrolls came in at 271,000, well above Wall Street's forecast of 185,000.
"Now that you've got December pretty much in stone, which is fair," said John Briggs, head of strategy at RBS. "…The thought in the bond market is [that] the bond market is going to move towards [the] path. I think that's what the equity market is looking toward the bond market for – it's about the path."
The Fed has been promising a slow move — or path — higher for rates, but the market is still pricing in just three rate hikes by the end of 2016, he added.