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Cramer: Big rebound signals for oil, per the euro

Jim Cramer says that, of all of the problems currently plaguing the market, the strong dollar and the low price of oil are the worst.

The strong dollar has a significant impact because it makes U.S. international companies less competitive overseas. Meanwhile, the ultralow price of oil has many oil companies in dire straits and doesn't seem to be benefiting consumers as it should.

And while the price of crude has been totally pulverized by oversupply, it is also a currency issue. Crude is priced in dollars, which means that when it gets stronger oil gets weaker.

"This relationship between currency and oil often gets overlooked," the "Mad Money" host said. (Tweet This)





To get a better read on where oil and currency could be headed, Cramer spoke with Carley Garner, a technician and commodities expert who co-founded DeCarley Trading and a colleague of Cramer's at RealMoney.com.

Because the price of crude is so heavily influenced by the strong dollar, Garner found that oil and the euro often trade in lockstep with one another. There is a high correlation between the two because they are both punished when the dollar increases in value.

In Garner's opinion, both oil and the euro could be closer to a bottom than most people think. In fact, she thinks the euro could have bottomed already.

Looking at the chart correlation going back to 2006, Garner found that the relationship between crude and the euro gets stronger around tops and bottoms. Lately, they have been trading together, which suggested to her that there could be a bottom nearing for both.

Garner also found that historically the euro tends to lead the way in trend reversals. So, when it approaches a top or a bottom, the euro makes the first move and then oil will follow suit after excessive volatility.

Despite the Fed's recent move to take rates higher, which could strengthen the dollar, Garner thinks the rate hike could already be baked in. She believes the recent action could be a hint that there will be a significant rebound in the euro, followed by crude.

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Garner also noticed looking at the weekly chart of crude that the Relative Strength Index, which is an important momentum indicator, has been trending higher even though the price of crude has declined. This could signal that oil could soon begin to rally, perhaps before the end of the year.

Oil has also been making a wedge formation going back to January, and, based on that pattern, Garner thinks the floor of support should be $33.80. If oil can break above the top of the wedge pattern at $40, then she thinks it could run up to the $60s before it runs into resistance.

"I don't know if her predictions will come true, but if Garner is right, that would be very good news for this crazy-town stock market," Cramer said.

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