Donald Trump's entry into the political arena has restructured the GOP from the already fractious "establishment vs. base" struggle that helped cost the party two presidential elections (even while making significant gains at the state and local levels) into a more complex and dynamic three-camp race.
If the polls are even close to accurate, Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio – in descending orders of certainty — will each end the primary season with about a third of the votes, setting up a scenario in which negotiations among them would determine the 2016 GOP nominee. Barring a surprise resurgence of one of the other candidates or collapse of one of these three, the future of the GOP—and perhaps the nation—may hinge on next summer's negotiations among a consummate deal maker, a champion debater, and a natural political talent.