Buy the dips? No, sell the rallies: JPM strategist

After working wonders for years, the strategy of buying market dips is now dead, and savvy traders should instead pursue the opposite strategy, according to JPMorgan global equity strategist Mislav Matejka.

"We were positive on equities for quite a long time. For seven years, we were saying to people, 'You should be buying any dips.' But we think structurally, this regime is coming to an end, and the regime that we should be having now is one of selling any rallies," Matejka said in a Monday interview on CNBC's "Trading Nation."

This is all a way of saying that he now sees the bias for equities as being to the downside, rather than the upside.

"My view is that on a 12-, 24-month view, markets will be lower than today," Matejka said.

This is based on his perception that the three biggest drivers of stocks over the past seven years — profit margin growth, Federal Reserve accommodation and the corporate issuance of debt to buy back shares — "are done."

Not to mention that the calendar no longer appears to be on the side of investors.

"Every cycle since the second world war was five years; the longest one was seven years. Now you're basically in the seventh year. So my view is that from here, it will be much harder for equities to perform," Matejka said.

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So what's an investor to do? Unfortunately, few good options present themselves.

"I don't think one can diversify too much, because if U.S. equities go down, everything else will go down even more," he pointed out.

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"Obviously it's difficult to say to people, 'You want to be in cash or bonds,' because they're yielding nothing. But to me, it's about capital preservation," said the strategist.

"We've had a great bull run for a very long time, and one should prepare for markets to be weaker. And thus not losing money is better than being invested."


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Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Michael Santoli

Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

Follow Michael Santoli on Twitter @michaelsantoli

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