Why read your horoscope when you have a premier global investment firm at your disposal?
At least, that's the philosophy of some investors, for whom the most important crystal ball each new year is that of Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners.
Since 1986, Wien has announced an annual list of 10 "surprises" he expects in the new year: An event which the average investor would only assign a 1 out of 3 chance of taking place but which Wien believes is "probable," having a better than 50 percent likelihood of happening, according to Blackstone.
Some of Wien's premonitions for 2016 include a presidential win from Hillary Clinton (against Republican nominee Ted Cruz) and oil prices languishing in the $30 range. He also predicts a darker turn for the European Union as refugees continue to flood in, and a single Federal Reserve interest rate hike for the year.
Another "probable" surprise would be Chinese economic growth dropping below 5 percent and a downturn for luxury real estate in New York and London, Wien wrote in a release.
To be sure, the list has had a mixed record.
Last year, Wien predicted a Federal Reserve rate hike "well before the middle of the year," when in fact, it was announced in December. He also called for a 15 percent return on the S&P 500, which ended the year slightly negatvie, and Brent and WTI hitting $70 in the second half of the year. (WTI's 52-week high is $65.61.)
Still, many of his themes have prevailed over time, including regulatory push back against sharing-economy start-ups like Airbnb and Uber; a slowdown in China's economic growth; a stronger U.S. dollar (predicted for 2014); and the increased potency of hackers.