Technician Carolyn Boroden made a controversial call last week when she correctly predicted to Jim Cramer that the could have a huge sell-off, followed by a rebound. Sure enough, the charts nailed it and the S&P changed trajectory.
So, where could the S&P be headed now?
Boroden is a technician who runs the website FibonacciQueen.com and a colleague of Cramer's at RealMoney.com. Her methodology for her predictions is to look at past swings and then run them through a prism of Fibonacci ratios to identify where the stock or index is likely to change trajectory.
"First off, she urges you not to mistake the current strength for a sustainable rally," the "Mad Money" host said.
Ever since the S&P peaked at 2,134 in May 2015, Boroden has thought that the index is vulnerable to a deep decline. And unfortunately, she thinks this market is likely to go a lot lower for a lot longer before hitting a bottom. That means her long-term projection is for more pain in the coming months.
Boroden believes that the Jan. 20 low of 1,812 reached in the S&P intra-day is now a key level, but it doesn't represent a genuine bottom. She is watching for another downside failure to occur soon.
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Additionally, she predicted that the beginning of this rebound that occurred last week indicate that the rally will be short-lived. She saw a minor grouping of Fibonacci timing cycles that will come due this week between Monday and Friday.
More importantly, Boroden saw a big cluster of Fibonacci cycles that will come due next week, between Feb. 2 and Feb. 4.
This is significant because those days also coincide with an important time frame. The last two rallies lasted for just 10 and 11 trading days. Therefore, Boroden thinks that this current rally will hit the 11-day mark by next Thurs., Feb. 4, and it is unlikely that the current rally will last beyond that 11-day window. That is also exactly when her methodology noted that the S&P 500 is likely to change trajectory again.
Boroden also pointed out that there is a ceiling of resistance running from 1,911 to 1,915, and another ceiling running from 1,978 to 2,000.
Ultimately, there could be anywhere from a 1 to 5 percent upside before the current bounce will run out of steam. Boroden wants investors to be ready for things to turn negative again, perhaps next week.
"Given that she totally nailed where and when this bounce would happen, her view certainly makes me want to be more cautious," Cramer said.