S&P Capital IQ's Sam Stovall on Tuesday looked to market history to handicap what the worst January for stocks since 2009 might mean for the rest of the year.
Let's get the bad news out of the way, because the chairman of the S&P Investment Policy Committee actually went on to be quite optimistic.
"We're seeing an earnings recession. And 75 percent of the time earnings recessions have preceded or accompanied economic recessions," Stovall told CNBC's "Squawk Box."
However, he leaned toward the underdog 25 percent odds.
"What makes me feel that we could turn ... lemons into whiskey sours is when you look to economic growth," he said. He predicted 2.7 percent growth for 2016, an unemployment rate of 4.6 percent and wage growth of over 3 percent by year's end, and inflation around the Federal Reserve's target of 2 percent.