×

Investor: Bull market won’t return until 2017—at least

If you're waiting for stocks to resume their record-breaking bull run, you might be out of luck, according to one veteran investor.

On CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday, Koyote Capital trader and investor Rick Bensignor highlighted the history and development of bear markets, and noted that stocks could be in the midst of a major decline comparable to the '09 recession.

"If history repeats itself, I could see us getting as low as 1,680 in the S&P," the former head of cross-asset management for Wells Fargo said. That's 11 percent lower than where the S&P 500 was trading on Tuesday and 21 percent from its May high.

Looking at charts of the New York Stock Exchange index, Bensignor noted significant similarities, a cause for concern over the next 12 months. His analysis found that prior to the market highs in 2015, breadth had climbed upward for a period of 320 weeks. In the last bull run, the market rallied for 323 weeks from the secular lows in 2000 to the highs in April and October 2007. Following that advance, there were roughly 92 weeks of declines.

As a result, Bensignor is calling for caution. "Over [this current period] of 92 weeks, if the market in any way duplicates the type of breadth sell-off that we saw from 2007 to 2009, it puts the entire year of 2016 as an equal to bearish [market]."

In other words, expect long-term losses and more volatility if history repeats.

And while things could be different this time, Bensignor maintains that this movement is by no means a coincidence: "On the Street, when people say 'things are different this time,' they rarely are. History often does repeat itself, and this is too similar a type of pattern to just think that there isn't any negativity still to come."

The S&P 500 traded around 1,900 on Tuesday.


Videos

Host Bio & Watch Now

Trader Bios