Four of the world's biggest oil producers on Tuesday opened the door to an output freeze, but Tom Kloza, co-founder of the Oil Price Information Service, said such a deal seems unlikely.
Crude prices were swinging between strong gains and modest losses in early trading Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar, and Venezuela said they would hold output steady at January levels, but only if other producers followed their lead.
But Iran, back on the world oil market after the lifting of years of sanctions, swiftly dashed hopes of a deal, saying it would not abandon its share.
"People recognize that getting those four parties together and actually having a production freeze is a little bit like getting Johnny Manziel and Charlie Sheen to pledge to live very, very clean lives for the next few years," Kloza said, making an analogy to reports of erratic behavior by Cleveland Browns quarterback Manziel and actor Sheen.
Oil has recently bounced off 13-year lows. But the depressed commodity has fallen more 70 percent since June 2014 as oversupply and softening demand concerns persist.
"There's too much oil. It's that plain and simple. And [major producers] would have to cut not to freeze to really impact [the market]," Kloza told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "I think you can expect that they're all going to produce willy-nilly like they have. And it's going to take some time for the oil market to rebalance."
Freezing production at January levels in a "hopping" economy would create 2 million barrels per day in excess oil supply, said Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, a comprehensive source for petroleum pricing and news information. "And if the economy slows down, that could be 2½ million barrels a day [of] too much oil."
— Reuters contributed to this report.