Stocks may be bouncing Tuesday, but if history repeats itself, the market is going way lower.
So argues technical analyst Todd Gordon. Gordon says the closest antecedent to the current stock market pain came in 2011, when it fell 21 percent from its high in May to its low in October.
"A lot of times, markets will repeat themselves," Gordon said. And if the market falls 21 percent from its all-time high in May 2015, that will bring the to about 1,670, he points out.
That level is "ultimately what we're going to target when this bounce is defeated," the technician said Friday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."
This might sound like an outlandish call — but it mirrored the method Gordon used to forecast crude oil in November. With oil trading at $40 per barrel, he predicted that it would fall to $26, based on the idea that it would repeat the 77 percent decline it suffered in the financial crisis.
On Thursday, oil fell as low at $26.05, before rebounding somewhat in Friday and Tuesday trading.