History says the S&P is headed to 1,670: Technician

Stocks may be bouncing Tuesday, but if history repeats itself, the market is going way lower.

So argues technical analyst Todd Gordon. Gordon says the closest antecedent to the current stock market pain came in 2011, when it fell 21 percent from its high in May to its low in October.

"A lot of times, markets will repeat themselves," Gordon said. And if the market falls 21 percent from its all-time high in May 2015, that will bring the S&P 500 to about 1,670, he points out.

That level is "ultimately what we're going to target when this bounce is defeated," the technician said Friday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

This might sound like an outlandish call — but it mirrored the method Gordon used to forecast crude oil in November. With oil trading at $40 per barrel, he predicted that it would fall to $26, based on the idea that it would repeat the 77 percent decline it suffered in the financial crisis.

Read MoreThe chart that says crude oil is going to $26

On Thursday, oil fell as low at $26.05, before rebounding somewhat in Friday and Tuesday trading.


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Michael Santoli joined CNBC in October 2015 as a Senior Markets Commentator, based at the network's Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.  Santoli brings his extensive markets expertise to CNBC's Business Day programming, with a regular appearance on CNBC's “Closing Bell (M-F, 3PM-5PM ET).   In addition, he contributes to CNBCand CNBC PRO, writing regular articles and creating original digital videos.

Previously, Santoli was a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the stock market, corporate news and the economy. He also appeared on Yahoo Finance video programs, where he offered insights on the most important business stories of the day, and was a regular contributor to CNBC and other networks.

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