Jim Cramer has always recommended that investors have some exposure to gold, either through actual bullion, an ETF like GLD or a high quality miner like Randgold. Now that gold has finally woken up from a four year slumber, could it be poised to roar even higher?
The precious metal is up 14 percent this year, while the is down 5.7 percent for the same time period. Cramer interpreted this as gold's insurance policy paying off at a time when the global economy has been filled with uncertainty.
Garner took a look at the results of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's commitments of traders report. She used this report as a tool to find out how big institutional money managers are placing their bets in the gold futures market.
She found that in December of 2015, large speculators were net long only 20,000 futures contracts. Since that time the precious metal has rallied, and the net long position has increased to 100,000 futures contracts. However, Garner said she wouldn't consider the bullish position aggressive until it gets to around 250,000.
Meaning, if big money wants to bet on gold, there is still plenty of room on the sidelines. That could mean there is a ton of firepower left to send gold higher.
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"Now, before we get into more charts, I think it worth pointing out that the fundamentals have absolutely gotten more positive for gold," Cramer said.
Japan and several European nations have recently cut overnight lending rates down below zero. So if bank depositors are getting negative interest rates, investors actually lose money by allowing cash to sit in a bank vault overnight. That makes gold a lot more attractive worldwide.
However, just because Garner thinks gold is ready to rally — that does not mean it will happen immediately. Although Garner thinks that the precious metal is headed higher, seasonal pressures in the late winter and spring months tend to be bearish for gold.
And given the size of the recent rally in the market, Garner suggested that the market will need time to digest gains. That is why she thinks there could be a sharp pullback before the meaningful buyers come back to the market.
Looking at gold's shorter-term daily chart, Garner thinks that gold could pull down to the $1,150 range and that could be a good place to start building a position. She would not be surprised if the sell-off dropped the price to $1,100 which could be a floor of support. If that doesn't hold, the next level of support is around $1,080.
Garner thinks that investors should wait for this weakness before doing any buying, but in the long-term she is very bullish. She ultimately thinks gold could go to $1,500 — even if there is resistance along the way.
"I think this could be a terrific story, and if you don't already have some gold exposure, you might want to get ready to build a position," Cramer said.