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CCTV Script 26/01/16


– This is the script of CNBC's news report for China's CCTV on January 26, Tuesday.

Welcome to CNBC Business Daily, I'm Qian Chen.

In Venezuela, oil prices are lower and money is cheaper.

As a major oil exporting country, Venezuela depends on oil for 96 percent of hard currency revenues, or roughly 25% of its annual GDP.

The country's foreign reserve has declined to $15.6 billion.

Venezuela's Central Bank published economic statistics January 15 for the first time in a year, confirming that inflation had reached triple digits and closed the third quarter at 141.5% on an annual basis. As of December 2014, the last time data was released, inflation was 68.5%.

However, both inflation and GDP data estimated by IMF are different from what Venezuela's central bank has claimed.

Venezuela's economy will shrink 8% this year, following a 10% contraction last year, according to the IMF.

The organization said in a report that Venezuela's consumer inflation, already the world's highest, will more than double this year surging to 720% in 2016 from 275% last year.

"The biggest loser in Latin America of the decline in oil prices is clearly Venezuela. At this point, a credit event in 2016 seems difficult to avoid," Barclays said in a research note.

Barclays said the country will have difficulty avoiding a "credit event" in 2016 - and that is based on the bank's forecast of US$37 oil, almost US$10 higher than current prices. That sentiment seems to be widely shared in the market, even though President Nicolás Maduro assured the National Assembly last week that Venezuela would continue to pay what it owes.

Last year, Venezuela was able to stave off its troubles last year, leaving no stone unturned in efforts to drum up short-term financing. It filled gaps through cashing in PetroCaribe loans at a steep discount, gold swaps and issuing high-yield bonds through PDVSA's US subsidiary Citgo. But many of these sources are now exhausted.

Spiking prices and widespread shortages for even staples have driven discontent in Venezuela. That helped spur the opposition to gain control of Congress for the first time in a decade, as President Nicolás Maduro attempts to turn the tide of what he has deemed an "economic emergency."

The heaviest payments in Venezuela's roughly $10 billion foreign debt bill for 2016 come in October and November.

CNBC's Qian Chen, reporting from Singapore.

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